Libertad Asuncion 2–2 Alianza Lima: Result & Stats

Libertad Asuncion

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Alianza Lima

I. Ramirez 63'

O. Cardozo 45' (pen)

E. Castillo 42'

Paolo Guerrero 28'

5/27/2025

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 6Estadio Tigo La Huerta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Libertad Asuncion35%

×Draw27%

Alianza Lima38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Libertad AsuncionExpected goals in this matchAlianza Lima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.29

Libertad Asuncion

1.21

Alianza Lima

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

1.00

creates per match

1.29

1.30

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Libertad Asuncion

1.00

Alianza Lima

1.29

allows per match

Libertad Asuncion

1.30

Alianza Lima

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Libertad Asuncion+0.00on par

Alianza Lima+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertad Asuncion ↓

Alianza Lima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Libertad Asuncion or draw

62%

Libertad Asuncion or Alianza Lima

73%

Draw or Alianza Lima

65%

Winning margin

Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+

15%

Alianza Lima wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals

70%

Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals

34%

Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals

12%

Alianza Lima 1+ goals

72%

Alianza Lima 2+ goals

37%

Alianza Lima 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)

47%

Alianza Lima (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertad Asuncion at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

Alianza Lima away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertad Asuncion attack 1.00 + Alianza Lima defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.21

Alianza Lima attack 1.29 + Libertad Asuncion defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Libertad Asuncion scores more

35%

level

27%

Alianza Lima scores more

38%

Alianza Lima at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Alianza Lima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

J. Castillo

Alianza Lima · M

7.7

Match Events

28'

Paolo Guerrero↳ J. Castillo

40'

Miguel Jacquet

42'

E. Castillo↳ P. Cari

45+3'

Renzo Garces

45'

O. CardozoPenalty

46'

A. Campuzano← H. Caballero

62'

G. Aguirre← P. Cari

63'

I. Ramirez

68'

R. Lagos← M. Trauco

68'

H. Barcos← Paolo Guerrero

77'

J. Velasquez← K. Quevedo

81'

Ricardo Lagos

82'

Óscar Cardozo

83'

R. Villalba← A. Alcaraz

89'

L. Sanabria← A. Cardozo Lucena

89'

P. Villalba← M. Fernandez

89'

C. R. Santa← G. Aguilar

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LibertadAlianza

Overview

62%Possession38%

13Total Shots13

1.78Expected Goals (xG)1.24

6Corners4

9Fouls4

Shots

13Total Shots13

4On Target4

8Off Target9

1Blocked0

8Inside Box7

5Outside Box6

Passing

62%Possession38%

516Total Passes317

419Accurate Passes225

81%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

-0.66Goals Prevented-0.66

Discipline

9Fouls4

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1