Alianza Lima 0–1 Libertad Asuncion: Result & Stats

Alianza Lima

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Libertad Asuncion

G. Aguilar 52'

4/2/2025

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 1Estadio Alejandro Villanueva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Alianza Lima51%

×Draw27%

Libertad Asuncion22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza LimaExpected goals in this matchLibertad Asuncion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.85

Alianza Lima

1.43

Libertad Asuncion

0.85

Alianza Lima creates 68% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

1.29

creates per match

0.57

1.14

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Alianza Lima

1.29

Libertad Asuncion

0.57

allows per match

Alianza Lima

1.14

Libertad Asuncion

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alianza Lima+0.00on par

Libertad Asuncion+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Lima ↓

Libertad Asuncion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Alianza Lima or draw

78%

Alianza Lima or Libertad Asuncion

73%

Draw or Libertad Asuncion

49%

Winning margin

Alianza Lima wins by 2+

25%

Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Alianza Lima 1+ goals

76%

Alianza Lima 2+ goals

42%

Alianza Lima 3+ goals

17%

Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals

57%

Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals

21%

Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Alianza Lima (draw refunded)

69%

Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Lima at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Libertad Asuncion away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Lima attack 1.29 + Libertad Asuncion defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.43

Libertad Asuncion attack 0.57 + Alianza Lima defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Alianza Lima scores more

51%

level

27%

Libertad Asuncion scores more

22%

Alianza Lima at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Alianza Lima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

D. Viera

Libertad Asuncion · D

7.6

Match Events

17'

G. Enrique

42'

L. Melgarejo

52'

G. Aguilar↳ H. Martinez

57'

T. Gutierrez← M. Espinoza

58'

Paolo Guerrero← H. Barcos

58'

A. Cantero← P. Ceppelini

68'

H. Martinez

68'

R. Garces

71'

F. Gaibor← P. Lavandeira Hernandez

77'

C. R. Santa← G. Aguilar

77'

M. Fernandez← L. Melgarejo

77'

A. Alcaraz← I. Franco

78'

K. Quevedo

81'

C. Zambrano

86'

N. Gimenez

87'

A. Cardozo Lucena← L. Sanabria

90+6'

G. Enrique

90+6'

G. Enrique

90+7'

J. D'Arrigo← M. Trauco

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlianzaLibertad

Overview

59%Possession41%

16Total Shots11

0.67Expected Goals (xG)0.82

5Corners5

13Fouls6

Shots

16Total Shots11

3On Target6

6Off Target5

7Blocked0

8Inside Box5

8Outside Box6

Passing

59%Possession41%

422Total Passes300

334Accurate Passes219

79%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

0.36Goals Prevented0.36

Discipline

13Fouls6

5Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards1

3Offsides2