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Alianza Lima vs Libertad Asuncion — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2025

Alianza Lima
Alianza Lima
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
Y. Vílchez 90+3'
L. Melgarejo 55'
S. García 45+2' (OG)
5/24/2023CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 4Estadio Alejandro Villanueva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Alianza Lima46%
×Draw27%
Libertad Asuncion27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza Lima
1.41
Libertad Asuncion
1.02

Alianza Lima creates 38% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Alianza Lima
1.25
Libertad Asuncion
0.78

allows per match

Alianza Lima
1.25
Libertad Asuncion
1.56

finishing

Alianza Lima+0.00on par
Libertad Asuncion+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Lima ↓

Libertad Asuncion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Alianza Lima or draw
73%
Alianza Lima or Libertad Asuncion
73%
Draw or Libertad Asuncion
54%

Winning margin

Alianza Lima wins by 2+
22%
Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Alianza Lima 1+ goals
76%
Alianza Lima 2+ goals
41%
Alianza Lima 3+ goals
17%
Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals
64%
Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals
27%
Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Alianza Lima (draw refunded)
63%
Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Lima at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Libertad Asuncion away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Lima attack 1.25 + Libertad Asuncion defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.41

Libertad Asuncion attack 0.78 + Alianza Lima defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Alianza Lima scores more
46%
level
27%
Libertad Asuncion scores more
27%

Alianza Lima at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Alianza Lima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
D. GómezLibertad AsuncionLibertad Asuncion · M
8.0

Match Events

6'
J. Ballon
11'
A. Oviedo
24'
A. Barboza
45+6'
J. CastilloGoal Disallowed - offside
45+2'
S. GarcíaOwn goal
46'
O. Cardozo← A. Oviedo
55'
L. Melgarejo↳ D. Gómez
58'
C. Cueva← F. Zanelatto
58'
G. Costa← P. Lavandeira
58'
A. Rodríguez← J. Ballón
60'
L. Sanabria
61'
B. Reyna
66'
H. Barcos← P. Sabbag
68'
C. Riveros← L. Sanabria
81'
M. Espinoza← L. Melgarejo
81'
I. Ramírez← H. Villalba
90+5'
N. Gimenez
90+7'
M. Silva
90+3'
Y. Vílchez↳ G. Costa

Possession

54%Alianza

Shots

19Alianza

Pass accuracy

53%Alianza

Statistics

AlianzaLibertad
Overview
54%Possession46%
19Total Shots10
6Corners5
15Fouls14
Shots
19Total Shots10
7On Target2
8Off Target3
4Blocked5
10Inside Box4
9Outside Box6
Passing
54%Possession46%
378Total Passes308
283Accurate Passes203
75%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
0Saves6
Discipline
15Fouls14
2Yellow Cards5
1Offsides1

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Alianza Lima 1–2 Libertad Asuncion

Libertad Asuncion beat Alianza Lima 2-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on May 24, 2023.

Goals: S. García (45+2' o.g.), L. Melgarejo (55'), Y. Vílchez (90+3').

Alianza Lima controlled possession (54%) and registered 19 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva in Lima.