Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Libertad Asuncion vs Alianza Lima — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2025

Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Alianza Lima
Alianza Lima
O. Cardozo 90+4' (pen)
P. Sabbag 71'
A. Rodríguez 46'
4/21/2023CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 2Estadio Defensores del Chaco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Libertad Asuncion35%
×Draw27%
Alianza Lima38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Libertad Asuncion
1.21
Alianza Lima
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

creates per match

Libertad Asuncion
1.00
Alianza Lima
1.29

allows per match

Libertad Asuncion
1.30
Alianza Lima
1.43

finishing

Libertad Asuncion+0.00on par
Alianza Lima+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertad Asuncion ↓

Alianza Lima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Libertad Asuncion or draw
62%
Libertad Asuncion or Alianza Lima
73%
Draw or Alianza Lima
65%

Winning margin

Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+
15%
Alianza Lima wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals
70%
Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals
34%
Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals
12%
Alianza Lima 1+ goals
72%
Alianza Lima 2+ goals
37%
Alianza Lima 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)
47%
Alianza Lima (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertad Asuncion at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

Alianza Lima away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertad Asuncion attack 1.00 + Alianza Lima defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.21

Alianza Lima attack 1.29 + Libertad Asuncion defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Libertad Asuncion scores more
35%
level
27%
Alianza Lima scores more
38%

Alianza Lima at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Alianza Lima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
A. RodríguezAlianza LimaAlianza Lima · M
7.9

Match Events

22'
E. González← L. Melgarejo
46'
A. Rodríguez↳ A. Andrade
54'
Marco Aldair RodríguezGoal cancelled
63'
O. Cardozo← A. Oviedo
63'
R. Santa Cruz← L. Sanabria
67'
Iván Piris
69'
Jesús Castillo
71'
P. Sabbag↳ A. Rodríguez
74'
P. Lavandeira← B. Reyna
80'
O. Valenzuela← J. Castillo
84'
I. Ramírez← E. González
84'
R. Lezcano← I. Piris
87'
H. Barcos← A. Rodríguez
89'
Alexander Barboza
90+3'
Carlos Zambrano
90+4'
O. CardozoPenalty

Possession

64%Libertad

Shots

20Libertad

Pass accuracy

54%Libertad

Statistics

LibertadAlianza
Overview
64%Possession36%
20Total Shots7
11Corners2
13Fouls15
Shots
20Total Shots7
6On Target4
11Off Target2
3Blocked1
8Inside Box4
12Outside Box3
Passing
64%Possession36%
439Total Passes256
334Accurate Passes167
76%Pass Accuracy65%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
13Fouls15
2Yellow Cards2
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Libertad Asuncion vs Alianza Lima

Alianza Lima beat Libertad Asuncion 2-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on April 21, 2023.

Goals: A. Rodríguez (46'), P. Sabbag (71'), O. Cardozo (90+4' pen).

Libertad Asuncion controlled possession (64%) and registered 20 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Defensores del Chaco in Asunción.