Leyton Orient 4–0 Doncaster: Result & Stats

Leyton Orient

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Doncaster

D. Ballard 72', 49', 2'

A. Connolly 27'

10/11/2025

League One · Round 12Brisbane Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Leyton Orient49%

×Draw26%

Doncaster26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leyton OrientExpected goals in this matchDoncaster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.03

Leyton Orient

1.53

Doncaster

1.03

Leyton Orient creates 49% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 32 away

1.31

creates per match

0.84

1.23

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Leyton Orient

1.31

Doncaster

0.84

allows per match

Leyton Orient

1.23

Doncaster

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Doncaster+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Doncaster →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw

74%

Leyton Orient or Doncaster

74%

Draw or Doncaster

51%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

25%

Doncaster wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

78%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

45%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

20%

Doncaster 1+ goals

64%

Doncaster 2+ goals

28%

Doncaster 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

66%

Doncaster (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.23 · 26 matches

Doncaster away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.75 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.31 + Doncaster defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.53

Doncaster attack 0.84 + Leyton Orient defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Leyton Orient scores more

49%

level

26%

Doncaster scores more

26%

Leyton Orient at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

D. Ballard

Leyton Orient · F

10.0

Match Events

2'

D. Ballard

24'

Jay McGrath

27'

A. Connolly↳ C. Wellens

46'

B. Hanlan← L. Molyneux

46'

G. Middleton← J. Gibson

49'

D. Ballard↳ K. Cahill

55'

G. Broadbent← B. Close

55'

R. Gotts← J. Sbarra

63'

T. James← S. Clare

70'

R. Edmonds-Green← J. Simpson

72'

D. Ballard↳ A. Connolly

78'

D. Mitchell← T. Adaramola

79'

J. Koroma← D. Ballard

79'

A. Abdulai← A. Connolly

90+6'

Idris El Mizouni

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeytonDoncaster

Overview

36%Possession64%

13Total Shots15

4Corners6

11Fouls7

Shots

13Total Shots15

6On Target4

3Off Target6

4Blocked5

7Inside Box14

6Outside Box1

Passing

36%Possession64%

250Total Passes434

153Accurate Passes318

61%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls7

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0