Leyton Orient 1–0 Doncaster: Result & Stats

Leyton Orient

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Doncaster

T. Archibald 68'

1/7/2023

League Two · Round 26Brisbane Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Leyton Orient45%

×Draw27%

Doncaster28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leyton OrientExpected goals in this matchDoncaster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.03

Leyton Orient

1.37

Doncaster

1.03

Leyton Orient creates 33% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 73 away

1.32

creates per match

1.38

0.68

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Leyton Orient

1.32

Doncaster

1.38

allows per match

Leyton Orient

0.68

Doncaster

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Doncaster+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Doncaster →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw

72%

Leyton Orient or Doncaster

73%

Draw or Doncaster

55%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

21%

Doncaster wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

75%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

40%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

16%

Doncaster 1+ goals

64%

Doncaster 2+ goals

28%

Doncaster 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

61%

Doncaster (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.68 · 25 matches

Doncaster away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.42 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.32 + Doncaster defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.37

Doncaster attack 1.38 + Leyton Orient defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Leyton Orient scores more

45%

level

27%

Doncaster scores more

28%

Leyton Orient at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

T. Archibald

Leyton Orient · F

7.9

Match Events

51'

Paul Smyth

52'

R. Sotiriou← G. Moncur

62'

Tom Anderson

68'

T. Archibald

69'

M. Woltman← L. Molyneux

76'

K. Agard← K. Hurst

80'

S. Duke-McKenna← P. Smyth

88'

C. Kelman← A. Drinan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeytonDoncaster

Overview

54%Possession46%

7Total Shots8

6Corners3

11Fouls11

Shots

7Total Shots8

4On Target0

0Off Target2

3Blocked6

1Inside Box3

6Outside Box5

Passing

54%Possession46%

391Total Passes320

272Accurate Passes228

70%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1