Leyton Orient 1–4 Doncaster: Result & Stats

Leyton Orient

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Doncaster

T. Parkes 44'

M. Baudry 86'

J. Marquis 82', 55'

T. Rowe 36'

3/18/2017

League Two · Round 38Matchroom Stadium (London)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Leyton Orient45%

×Draw27%

Doncaster28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leyton OrientExpected goals in this matchDoncaster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.03

Leyton Orient

1.37

Doncaster

1.03

Leyton Orient creates 33% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 73 away

1.32

creates per match

1.38

0.68

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Leyton Orient

1.32

Doncaster

1.38

allows per match

Leyton Orient

0.68

Doncaster

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Doncaster+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Doncaster →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw

72%

Leyton Orient or Doncaster

73%

Draw or Doncaster

55%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

21%

Doncaster wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

75%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

40%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

16%

Doncaster 1+ goals

64%

Doncaster 2+ goals

28%

Doncaster 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

61%

Doncaster (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.68 · 25 matches

Doncaster away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.42 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.32 + Doncaster defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.37

Doncaster attack 1.38 + Leyton Orient defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Leyton Orient scores more

45%

level

27%

Doncaster scores more

28%

Leyton Orient at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

44'

46'

55'

71'

77'

78'

G. McSheffrey← J. Coppinger

82'

J. Marquis↳ G. McSheffrey

86'

M. Baudry

88'

S. Alzate← N. Atangana

Leyton

Doncaster

38

▼

Lawlor

6

Butler

2

Alcock

5

⚽

Baudry

24

Mason

26

▼

Coppinger

10

⚽

Rowe

17

Blair

39

▼

May

25

Grant

9

⚽2

Marquis

1

Cisak

6

⚽

29

25

34

7

4

11

A

Massey

15

▼

Atangana

22

Semedo

28

▼

Koroma

Manager: D. Webb

77'▲S. Dalby←▼J. Koroma

88'▲S. Alzate←▼N. Atangana

Leyton Orient substitutes

30Dalby31Alzate19Mézague20Liburd23Moncur24Sargeant38Happe

Manager: D. Ferguson

46'▲M. Maroši←▼I. Lawlor

71'▲A. Williams←▼A. May

78'▲G. McSheffrey←▼J. Coppinger

Doncaster substitutes

13Maroši11Williams7McSheffrey12Lund14Middleton19Mandeville27Evina