Doncaster 1–1 Leyton Orient: Result & Stats

Doncaster

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Leyton Orient

H. Biggins 76'

P. Smyth 26'

10/8/2022

League Two · Round 14Eco-Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Doncaster35%

×Draw28%

Leyton Orient37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DoncasterExpected goals in this matchLeyton Orient

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.23

Doncaster

1.19

Leyton Orient

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 23 away

1.47

creates per match

1.26

1.19

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Doncaster

1.47

Leyton Orient

1.26

allows per match

Doncaster

1.19

Leyton Orient

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Doncaster+0.00on par

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doncaster ↓

Leyton Orient →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Doncaster or draw

63%

Doncaster or Leyton Orient

72%

Draw or Leyton Orient

65%

Winning margin

Doncaster wins by 2+

15%

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Doncaster 1+ goals

70%

Doncaster 2+ goals

33%

Doncaster 3+ goals

12%

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

71%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

35%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Doncaster (draw refunded)

49%

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doncaster at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.19 · 73 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.26, concedes 0.91 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doncaster attack 1.47 + Leyton Orient defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.19

Leyton Orient attack 1.26 + Doncaster defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Doncaster scores more

35%

level

28%

Leyton Orient scores more

37%

Leyton Orient at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

J. Mitchell

Doncaster · G

7.3

Match Events

22'

Darren Pratley

26'

P. Smyth↳ R. Hunt

46'

R. Griffiths← K. Agard

46'

M. Woltman← J. Maxwell

46'

A. Long← K. Hurst

46'

J. Brown← I. El Mizouni

67'

C. Clay← G. Moncur

72'

C. Kelman← T. Archibald

76'

H. Biggins↳ K. Knoyle

86'

R. Sotiriou← A. Drinan

90+1'

Bobby Faulkner

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DoncasterLeyton

Overview

38%Possession62%

5Total Shots14

0Corners6

11Fouls11

Shots

5Total Shots14

4On Target6

0Off Target5

1Blocked3

3Inside Box7

2Outside Box7

Passing

38%Possession62%

325Total Passes531

164Accurate Passes370

50%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2

League Two: Doncaster 1–1 Leyton Orient

Doncaster and Leyton Orient drew 1-1 in League Two on October 8, 2022.

Goals: P. Smyth (26'), H. Biggins (76').

Leyton Orient controlled possession (62%) and registered 14 shots to 5.

The match was played at Eco-Power Stadium in Doncaster, South Yorkshire.

Doncaster vs Leyton Orient — League Two 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League Two: Doncaster 1–1 Leyton Orient