Lexington 2–2 Chattanooga Red Wolves

Lexington

Pens

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Chattanooga Red Wolves

8/31/2024

USL League One Cup · Group Stage - 5Toyota Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Lexington62%

×Draw20%

Chattanooga Red Wolves18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LexingtonExpected goals in this matchChattanooga Red Wolves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.13

Lexington

2.25

Chattanooga Red Wolves

1.13

Lexington creates 99% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

1.50

creates per match

1.00

1.25

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Lexington

1.50

Chattanooga Red Wolves

1.00

allows per match

Lexington

1.25

Chattanooga Red Wolves

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lexington+0.00on par

Chattanooga Red Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lexington ↓

Chattanooga Red Wolves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Lexington or draw

82%

Lexington or Chattanooga Red Wolves

80%

Draw or Chattanooga Red Wolves

38%

Winning margin

Lexington wins by 2+

40%

Chattanooga Red Wolves wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Lexington 1+ goals

89%

Lexington 2+ goals

65%

Lexington 3+ goals

39%

Chattanooga Red Wolves 1+ goals

68%

Chattanooga Red Wolves 2+ goals

31%

Chattanooga Red Wolves 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Lexington (draw refunded)

77%

Chattanooga Red Wolves (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lexington at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Chattanooga Red Wolves away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lexington attack 1.50 + Chattanooga Red Wolves defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.25

Chattanooga Red Wolves attack 1.00 + Lexington defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Lexington scores more

62%

level

20%

Chattanooga Red Wolves scores more

18%

Lexington at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Lexington will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lexington vs Chattanooga Red Wolves

Lexington and Chattanooga Red Wolves drew 2-2 in USL League One Cup on August 31, 2024.

The match was played at Toyota Stadium in Georgetown, Kentucky.

Lexington vs Chattanooga Red Wolves — USL League One Cup 2024

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Lexington vs Chattanooga Red Wolves