Chattanooga Red Wolves 3–4 Lexington

Chattanooga Red Wolves

FT

3 – 4

HT: 2 – 1

Lexington

5/25/2024

USL League One Cup · Group Stage - 2CHI Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Chattanooga Red Wolves33%

×Draw26%

Lexington41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chattanooga Red WolvesExpected goals in this matchLexington

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.42

Chattanooga Red Wolves

1.25

Lexington

1.42

Lexington creates 14% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

0.83

creates per match

1.67

1.17

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Chattanooga Red Wolves

0.83

Lexington

1.67

allows per match

Chattanooga Red Wolves

1.17

Lexington

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chattanooga Red Wolves+0.00on par

Lexington+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chattanooga Red Wolves ↓

Lexington →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Chattanooga Red Wolves or draw

59%

Chattanooga Red Wolves or Lexington

74%

Draw or Lexington

67%

Winning margin

Chattanooga Red Wolves wins by 2+

14%

Lexington wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Chattanooga Red Wolves 1+ goals

71%

Chattanooga Red Wolves 2+ goals

36%

Chattanooga Red Wolves 3+ goals

13%

Lexington 1+ goals

76%

Lexington 2+ goals

41%

Lexington 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Chattanooga Red Wolves (draw refunded)

45%

Lexington (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chattanooga Red Wolves at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Lexington away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chattanooga Red Wolves attack 0.83 + Lexington defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.25

Lexington attack 1.67 + Chattanooga Red Wolves defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Chattanooga Red Wolves scores more

33%

level

26%

Lexington scores more

41%

Lexington at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Lexington will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League One Cup: Chattanooga Red Wolves 3–4 Lexington

Lexington beat Chattanooga Red Wolves 4-3 in USL League One Cup on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at CHI Memorial Stadium in East Ridge, Tennessee.

Chattanooga Red Wolves vs Lexington — USL League One Cup 2024

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

USL League One Cup: Chattanooga Red Wolves 3–4 Lexington