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Lexington vs Chattanooga Red Wolves — USL League One 2026

Lexington
Lexington
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chattanooga Red Wolves
Chattanooga Red Wolves
3/15/2024USL League OneUSL League One · Round 2Toyota Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Lexington43%
×Draw24%
Chattanooga Red Wolves32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lexington
1.59
Chattanooga Red Wolves
1.34

Lexington creates 19% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 100 away

creates per match

Lexington
1.59
Chattanooga Red Wolves
1.20

allows per match

Lexington
1.48
Chattanooga Red Wolves
1.59

finishing

Lexington+0.00on par
Chattanooga Red Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lexington ↓

Chattanooga Red Wolves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Lexington or draw
68%
Lexington or Chattanooga Red Wolves
76%
Draw or Chattanooga Red Wolves
57%

Winning margin

Lexington wins by 2+
22%
Chattanooga Red Wolves wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Lexington 1+ goals
80%
Lexington 2+ goals
47%
Lexington 3+ goals
21%
Chattanooga Red Wolves 1+ goals
74%
Chattanooga Red Wolves 2+ goals
39%
Chattanooga Red Wolves 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Lexington (draw refunded)
57%
Chattanooga Red Wolves (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lexington at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.48 · 27 matches

Chattanooga Red Wolves away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.59 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lexington attack 1.59 + Chattanooga Red Wolves defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.59

Chattanooga Red Wolves attack 1.20 + Lexington defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lexington scores more
43%
level
24%
Chattanooga Red Wolves scores more
32%

Lexington at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lexington will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League One: Lexington 1–0 Chattanooga Red Wolves

Lexington beat Chattanooga Red Wolves 1-0 in USL League One on March 15, 2024.

The match was played at Toyota Stadium in Georgetown, Kentucky.