Chattanooga Red Wolves 0–3 Lexington

Chattanooga Red Wolves

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Lexington

10/27/2024

USL League One · Round 14CHI Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Chattanooga Red Wolves52%

×Draw22%

Lexington25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chattanooga Red WolvesExpected goals in this matchLexington

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.28

Chattanooga Red Wolves

1.92

Lexington

1.28

Chattanooga Red Wolves creates 50% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 27 away

1.64

creates per match

1.33

1.23

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

Chattanooga Red Wolves

1.64

Lexington

1.33

allows per match

Chattanooga Red Wolves

1.23

Lexington

2.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chattanooga Red Wolves+0.00on par

Lexington+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chattanooga Red Wolves ↓

Lexington →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Chattanooga Red Wolves or draw

75%

Chattanooga Red Wolves or Lexington

78%

Draw or Lexington

48%

Winning margin

Chattanooga Red Wolves wins by 2+

30%

Lexington wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Chattanooga Red Wolves 1+ goals

85%

Chattanooga Red Wolves 2+ goals

57%

Chattanooga Red Wolves 3+ goals

30%

Lexington 1+ goals

72%

Lexington 2+ goals

37%

Lexington 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Chattanooga Red Wolves (draw refunded)

67%

Lexington (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chattanooga Red Wolves at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.23 · 101 matches

Lexington away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chattanooga Red Wolves attack 1.64 + Lexington defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.92

Lexington attack 1.33 + Chattanooga Red Wolves defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Chattanooga Red Wolves scores more

52%

level

22%

Lexington scores more

25%

Chattanooga Red Wolves at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Chattanooga Red Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff