Leicester 2–1 Cardiff: Result & Stats

Leicester

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Cardiff

C. Casadei 90+2'

Wanya Marçal 36'

A. Ramsey 45+1'

8/19/2023

Championship · Round 3King Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Leicester38%

×Draw31%

Cardiff31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeicesterExpected goals in this matchCardiff

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

0.94

Leicester

1.08

Cardiff

0.94

Leicester creates 15% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 20 away

0.92

creates per match

0.67

1.21

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Leicester

0.92

Cardiff

0.67

allows per match

Leicester

1.21

Cardiff

1.25

+0.96scores more than expected

finishing

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

Leicester+0.96scores more

Cardiff+0.18scores more

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester ↓

Cardiff →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Leicester or draw

69%

Leicester or Cardiff

69%

Draw or Cardiff

62%

Winning margin

Leicester wins by 2+

15%

Cardiff wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Leicester 1+ goals

66%

Leicester 2+ goals

29%

Leicester 3+ goals

10%

Cardiff 1+ goals

61%

Cardiff 2+ goals

24%

Cardiff 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Leicester (draw refunded)

55%

Cardiff (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.21 · 8 matches

Cardiff away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester attack 0.92 + Cardiff defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.08

Cardiff attack 0.67 + Leicester defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Leicester scores more

38%

level

31%

Cardiff scores more

31%

Leicester at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

K. Dewsbury-Hall

Leicester · M

7.9

Match Events

5'

19'

36'

45+1'

46'

57'

61'

61'

66'

K. Ahearne-Grant← J. Bowler

76'

J. Vardy← K. Ịheanachọ

77'

J. Simpson← D. Goutas

77'

C. Robinson← A. Ramsey

87'

Jamilu Collins

87'

M. Albrighton← Wanya Marçal

90+6'

90+4'

90+1'

90+6'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeicesterCardiff

Overview

65%Possession35%

15Total Shots10

0.69Expected Goals (xG)0.87

10Corners4

11Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots10

6On Target4

5Off Target4

4Blocked2

9Inside Box5

6Outside Box5

Passing

65%Possession35%

641Total Passes344

578Accurate Passes271

90%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls10

1Yellow Cards6

0Red Cards1

2Offsides0