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Cardiff vs Leicester — Premier League 2026

Cardiff
Cardiff
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Leicester
Leicester
D. Gray 55'
11/3/2018Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Cardiff30%
×Draw24%
Leicester46%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cardiff
1.31
Leicester
1.68

Leicester creates 28% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 173 away

creates per match

Cardiff
1.00
Leicester
1.46

allows per match

Cardiff
1.90
Leicester
1.61

finishing

Cardiff+0.00on par
Leicester+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Leicester →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw
54%
Cardiff or Leicester
76%
Draw or Leicester
70%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+
13%
Leicester wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals
73%
Cardiff 2+ goals
38%
Cardiff 3+ goals
14%
Leicester 1+ goals
81%
Leicester 2+ goals
50%
Leicester 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)
39%
Leicester (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.90 · 21 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.61 · 173 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 1.00 + Leicester defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.31

Leicester attack 1.46 + Cardiff defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cardiff scores more
30%
level
24%
Leicester scores more
46%

Leicester at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
S. BambaCardiffCardiff · D
7.5

Match Events

27'
J. Evans← H. Maguire
33'
Ricardo Pereira
45'
Harry Arter
55'
Demarai Gray
55'
D. Gray↳ B. Chilwell
65'
J. Hoilett← B. Reid
70'
D. Simpson← D. Gray
79'
D. Ward← H. Arter
81'
Junior Hoilett
82'
Vicente Iborra← J. Maddison
85'
G. Madine← Josh Murphy

Possession

40%Cardiff

Shots

11Cardiff

Pass accuracy

45%Cardiff

Statistics

CardiffLeicester
Overview
40%Possession60%
11Total Shots13
6Corners12
13Fouls12
Shots
11Total Shots13
2On Target5
8Off Target4
1Blocked4
8Inside Box10
3Outside Box3
Passing
40%Possession60%
271Total Passes403
166Accurate Passes305
61%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls12
2Yellow Cards2
4Offsides3

Premier League: Cardiff 0–1 Leicester

Leicester beat Cardiff 1-0 in Premier League on November 3, 2018.

Goals: D. Gray (55').

Leicester controlled possession (60%) and registered 13 shots to 11.

The match was played at Cardiff City Stadium in Cardiff.