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Leicester vs Cardiff — Premier League 2026

Leicester
Leicester
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cardiff
Cardiff
Víctor Camarasa 90+2'
12/29/2018Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 20King Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Leicester55%
×Draw24%
Cardiff21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leicester
1.66
Cardiff
0.91

Leicester creates 82% more chances

Season form · 173 home / 22 away

creates per match

Leicester
1.58
Cardiff
0.64

allows per match

Leicester
1.18
Cardiff
1.73

finishing

Leicester+0.00on par
Cardiff+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester ↓

Cardiff →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Leicester or draw
79%
Leicester or Cardiff
76%
Draw or Cardiff
45%

Winning margin

Leicester wins by 2+
30%
Cardiff wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Leicester 1+ goals
81%
Leicester 2+ goals
49%
Leicester 3+ goals
23%
Cardiff 1+ goals
60%
Cardiff 2+ goals
23%
Cardiff 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Leicester (draw refunded)
73%
Cardiff (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.18 · 173 matches

Cardiff away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.73 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester attack 1.58 + Cardiff defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.66

Cardiff attack 0.64 + Leicester defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Leicester scores more
55%
level
24%
Cardiff scores more
21%

Leicester at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
N. EtheridgeCardiffCardiff · G
9.2

Match Events

53'
Neil Etheridge
58'
R. Ghezzal← M. Albrighton
68'
K. Iheanacho← J. Vardy
78'
K. Harris← Josh Murphy
79'
S. Okazaki← D. Gray
83'
B. Reid← J. Hoilett
90'
Sean Morrison
90+5'
L. Peltier← H. Arter
90+2'
Víctor Camarasa↳ B. Reid

Possession

62%Leicester

Shots

16Leicester

Pass accuracy

52%Leicester

Statistics

LeicesterCardiff
Overview
62%Possession38%
16Total Shots12
10Corners4
14Fouls16
Shots
16Total Shots12
7On Target3
3Off Target3
6Blocked6
6Inside Box4
10Outside Box8
Passing
62%Possession38%
448Total Passes273
341Accurate Passes188
76%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
2Saves7
Discipline
14Fouls16
0Yellow Cards2
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Leicester vs Cardiff

Cardiff beat Leicester 1-0 in Premier League on December 29, 2018.

Goals: Víctor Camarasa (90+2').

Leicester controlled possession (62%) and registered 16 shots to 12.

The match was played at King Power Stadium in Leicester.