Cardiff 0–2 Leicester: Result & Stats

Cardiff

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Leicester

J. Justin 55'

K. Dewsbury-Hall 18'

12/29/2023

Championship · Round 25Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Cardiff30%

×Draw27%

Leicester44%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CardiffExpected goals in this matchLeicester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.41

Cardiff

1.11

Leicester

1.41

Leicester creates 27% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 7 away

1.05

creates per match

1.52

1.29

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Cardiff

1.05

Leicester

1.52

allows per match

Cardiff

1.29

Leicester

1.18

-0.46scores less than expected

finishing

-0.38scores less than expected

finishing

Cardiff-0.46scores less

Leicester-0.38scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Leicester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw

56%

Cardiff or Leicester

73%

Draw or Leicester

70%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+

12%

Leicester wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals

67%

Cardiff 2+ goals

30%

Cardiff 3+ goals

10%

Leicester 1+ goals

76%

Leicester 2+ goals

41%

Leicester 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)

40%

Leicester (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.18 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 1.05 + Leicester defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.11

Leicester attack 1.52 + Cardiff defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cardiff scores more

30%

level

27%

Leicester scores more

44%

Leicester at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

A. Fatawu

Leicester · M

9.2

Match Events

18'

K. Dewsbury-Hall↳ A. Fatawu

40'

Y. Meïté← K. Ahearne-Grant

47'

55'

60'

60'

66'

C. Robinson← K. Etete

69'

C. Casadei← W. Ndidi

82'

T. Cannon← P. Daka

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CardiffLeicester

Overview

36%Possession64%

10Total Shots9

0.41Expected Goals (xG)2.13

5Corners2

11Fouls7

Shots

10Total Shots9

2On Target4

3Off Target4

5Blocked1

5Inside Box7

5Outside Box2

Passing

36%Possession64%

392Total Passes722

325Accurate Passes654

83%Pass Accuracy91%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls7

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides1

Championship: Cardiff 0–2 Leicester

Leicester beat Cardiff 2-0 in Championship on December 29, 2023.

Goals: K. Dewsbury-Hall (18'), J. Justin (55').

Leicester controlled possession (64%) and registered 9 shots to 10.

The match was played at Cardiff City Stadium in Caerdydd.

Cardiff vs Leicester — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Cardiff 0–2 Leicester