Leicester 1–2 Aston Villa: Result & Stats

Leicester

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Aston Villa

H. Barnes 35'

B. Traoré 87'

O. Watkins 24'

4/4/2023

Premier League · Round 7King Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Leicester39%

×Draw26%

Aston Villa35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeicesterExpected goals in this matchAston Villa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.26

Leicester

1.35

Aston Villa

1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 27 away

1.14

creates per match

1.17

1.35

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Leicester

1.14

Aston Villa

1.17

allows per match

Leicester

1.35

Aston Villa

1.57

+0.03on par

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Leicester+0.03on par

Aston Villa+0.02on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester ↓

Aston Villa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Leicester or draw

65%

Leicester or Aston Villa

74%

Draw or Aston Villa

61%

Winning margin

Leicester wins by 2+

18%

Aston Villa wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Leicester 1+ goals

74%

Leicester 2+ goals

39%

Leicester 3+ goals

15%

Aston Villa 1+ goals

72%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

36%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Leicester (draw refunded)

53%

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.35 · 6 matches

Aston Villa away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.57 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester attack 1.14 + Aston Villa defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.35

Aston Villa attack 1.17 + Leicester defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Leicester scores more

39%

level

26%

Aston Villa scores more

35%

Leicester at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

E. Buendía

Aston Villa · M

7.6

Match Events

24'

O. Watkins↳ E. Buendía

35'

H. Barnes↳ W. Faes

54'

Timothy Castagne

64'

Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall

70'

Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall

70'

Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall

76'

P. Daka← J. Vardy

79'

J. Durán← J. Ramsey

85'

Ricardo Pereira← J. Maddison

85'

B. Traoré← L. Bailey

85'

C. Chambers← A. Young

85'

L. Digne← Álex Moreno

87'

B. Traoré

89'

Wout Faes

90+3'

Patson DakaPenalty cancelled

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeicesterAston

Overview

36%Possession64%

9Total Shots15

0.47Expected Goals (xG)1.02

4Corners8

10Fouls14

Shots

9Total Shots15

4On Target5

4Off Target5

1Blocked5

6Inside Box7

3Outside Box8

Passing

36%Possession64%

290Total Passes534

216Accurate Passes471

74%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls14

4Yellow Cards0

1Red Cards0

2Offsides1