Leicester 0–0 Aston Villa: Result & Stats

Leicester

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Aston Villa

4/23/2022

Premier League · Round 34King Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Leicester39%

×Draw26%

Aston Villa34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeicesterExpected goals in this matchAston Villa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.25

Leicester

1.36

Aston Villa

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 29 away

1.14

creates per match

1.14

1.35

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Leicester

1.14

Aston Villa

1.14

allows per match

Leicester

1.35

Aston Villa

1.58

+0.03on par

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Leicester+0.03on par

Aston Villa+0.03on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester ↓

Aston Villa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Leicester or draw

66%

Leicester or Aston Villa

74%

Draw or Aston Villa

61%

Winning margin

Leicester wins by 2+

18%

Aston Villa wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Leicester 1+ goals

74%

Leicester 2+ goals

39%

Leicester 3+ goals

16%

Aston Villa 1+ goals

71%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

36%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Leicester (draw refunded)

53%

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.35 · 6 matches

Aston Villa away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.58 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester attack 1.14 + Aston Villa defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.36

Aston Villa attack 1.14 + Leicester defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Leicester scores more

39%

level

26%

Aston Villa scores more

34%

Leicester at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

A. Young

Aston Villa · D

7.5

Match Events

63'

Nampalys Mendy

65'

Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall

71'

J. Vardy← P. Daka

72'

Douglas Luiz

75'

James Maddison

76'

T. Iroegbunam← Douglas Luiz

79'

E. Buendía← Philippe Coutinho

80'

H. Barnes← A. Lookman

86'

Ayoze Pérez← Y. Tielemans

90+5'

Leon Bailey

90+4'

M. Nakamba← J. Ramsey

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeicesterAston

Overview

64%Possession36%

5Total Shots11

7Corners6

15Fouls16

Shots

5Total Shots11

2On Target3

3Off Target4

0Blocked4

1Inside Box7

4Outside Box4

Passing

64%Possession36%

520Total Passes289

444Accurate Passes198

85%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls16

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1