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Aston Villa vs Leicester — Premier League 2026

Aston Villa
Aston Villa
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 3
Leicester
Leicester
H. Souttar 32' (OG)
O. Watkins 9'
D. Praet 79'
Tetê 45+2'
K. Ịheanachọ 41'
J. Maddison 12'
2/4/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22Villa Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 143+ matches

Aston Villa39%
×Draw25%
Leicester37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aston Villa
1.49
Leicester
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 143 home / 170 away

creates per match

Aston Villa
1.37
Leicester
1.45

allows per match

Aston Villa
1.43
Leicester
1.61

finishing

Aston Villa+0.00on par
Leicester+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aston Villa ↓

Leicester →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Aston Villa or draw
63%
Aston Villa or Leicester
75%
Draw or Leicester
61%

Winning margin

Aston Villa wins by 2+
19%
Leicester wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Aston Villa 1+ goals
77%
Aston Villa 2+ goals
44%
Aston Villa 3+ goals
19%
Leicester 1+ goals
76%
Leicester 2+ goals
42%
Leicester 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Aston Villa (draw refunded)
51%
Leicester (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aston Villa at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.43 · 143 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.61 · 170 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aston Villa attack 1.37 + Leicester defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.49

Leicester attack 1.45 + Aston Villa defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Aston Villa scores more
39%
level
25%
Leicester scores more
37%

Aston Villa at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Aston Villa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
K. ỊheanachọLeicesterLeicester · F
8.3

Match Events

9'
O. Watkins
12'
J. Maddison↳ K. Ịheanachọ
32'
H. SouttarOwn goal
41'
K. Ịheanachọ↳ H. Barnes
45+2'
Tetê↳ K. Ịheanachọ
46'
Álex Moreno← L. Digne
46'
Philippe Coutinho← J. Ramsey
56'
Timothy Castagne
59'
M. Cash← A. Young
67'
N. Mendy← K. Dewsbury-Hall
67'
D. Praet← J. Maddison
67'
J. Vardy← K. Ịheanachọ
79'
D. Praet
81'
L. Thomas← V. Kristiansen
82'
L. Dendoncker← B. Kamara
82'
J. Durán← L. Bailey
83'
Ç. Söyüncü← Tetê
86'
Çağlar Söyüncü
88'
Youri Tielemans

Possession

63%Aston

Shots

19Aston

Pass accuracy

54%Aston

Statistics

AstonLeicester
Overview
63%Possession37%
19Total Shots9
1.71Expected Goals (xG)2.57
11Corners3
10Fouls10
Shots
19Total Shots9
4On Target5
6Off Target4
9Blocked0
10Inside Box7
9Outside Box2
Passing
63%Possession37%
564Total Passes333
489Accurate Passes249
87%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls10
0Yellow Cards3
2Offsides8

Match Recap: Aston Villa vs Leicester

Leicester beat Aston Villa 4-2 in Premier League on February 4, 2023.

Goals: O. Watkins (9'), J. Maddison (12'), H. Souttar (32' o.g.), K. Ịheanachọ (41'), Tetê (45+2'), D. Praet (79').

Aston Villa controlled possession (63%) and registered 19 shots to 9.

The match was played at Villa Park in Birmingham.