Aston Villa 2–1 Leicester: Result & Stats

Aston Villa

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Leicester

E. Konsa 54', 17'

H. Barnes 14'

12/5/2021

Premier League · Round 15Villa Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Aston Villa45%

×Draw22%

Leicester32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aston VillaExpected goals in this matchLeicester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.57

Aston Villa

1.89

Leicester

1.57

Aston Villa creates 20% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 6 away

1.48

creates per match

1.92

1.22

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Aston Villa

1.48

Leicester

1.92

allows per match

Aston Villa

1.22

Leicester

2.30

+0.31scores more than expected

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Aston Villa+0.31scores more

Leicester-0.25scores less

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aston Villa ↓

Leicester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Aston Villa or draw

68%

Aston Villa or Leicester

78%

Draw or Leicester

55%

Winning margin

Aston Villa wins by 2+

25%

Leicester wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Aston Villa 1+ goals

85%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

56%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

29%

Leicester 1+ goals

79%

Leicester 2+ goals

46%

Leicester 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

58%

Leicester (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aston Villa at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.22 · 28 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.92, concedes 2.30 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aston Villa attack 1.48 + Leicester defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.89

Leicester attack 1.92 + Aston Villa defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Aston Villa scores more

45%

level

22%

Leicester scores more

32%

Aston Villa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Aston Villa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

E. Konsa

Aston Villa · D

8.3

Match Events

14'

H. Barnes↳ P. Daka

17'

E. Konsa↳ E. Buendía

45+2'

Jacob RamseyGoal cancelled

54'

E. Konsa↳ J. McGinn

55'

Marvelous Nakamba

65'

J. Vardy← A. Lookman

77'

M. Sanson← Douglas Luiz

78'

Carney Chukwuemeka← E. Buendía

78'

Ayoze Pérez← P. Daka

84'

A. Tuanzebe← J. Ramsey

86'

K. Iheanacho← K. Dewsbury-Hall

90'

James Maddison

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AstonLeicester

Overview

41%Possession59%

13Total Shots12

3Corners6

8Fouls25

Shots

13Total Shots12

4On Target5

4Off Target5

5Blocked2

11Inside Box9

2Outside Box3

Passing

41%Possession59%

359Total Passes524

271Accurate Passes424

75%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls25

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0

Premier League: Aston Villa 2–1 Leicester

Aston Villa beat Leicester 2-1 in Premier League on December 5, 2021.

Goals: H. Barnes (14'), E. Konsa (17', 54').

Leicester controlled possession (59%) and registered 12 shots to 13.

The match was played at Villa Park in Birmingham.

Aston Villa vs Leicester — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premier League: Aston Villa 2–1 Leicester