Leicester 4–0 Aston Villa: Result & Stats

Leicester

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Aston Villa

H. Barnes 85', 40'

J. Vardy 79', 63' (pen)

3/9/2020

Premier League · Round 29King Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Leicester40%

×Draw26%

Aston Villa34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeicesterExpected goals in this matchAston Villa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.27

Leicester

1.41

Aston Villa

1.27

Leicester creates 11% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 34 away

1.18

creates per match

1.19

1.34

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Leicester

1.18

Aston Villa

1.19

allows per match

Leicester

1.34

Aston Villa

1.64

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Leicester+0.12scores more

Aston Villa+0.10scores more

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester ↓

Aston Villa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Leicester or draw

66%

Leicester or Aston Villa

74%

Draw or Aston Villa

60%

Winning margin

Leicester wins by 2+

19%

Aston Villa wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Leicester 1+ goals

76%

Leicester 2+ goals

41%

Leicester 3+ goals

17%

Aston Villa 1+ goals

72%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

36%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Leicester (draw refunded)

54%

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.34 · 10 matches

Aston Villa away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.64 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester attack 1.18 + Aston Villa defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.41

Aston Villa attack 1.19 + Leicester defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Leicester scores more

40%

level

26%

Aston Villa scores more

34%

Leicester at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

H. Barnes

Leicester · M

8.8

Match Events

40'

H. Barnes↳ M. Albrighton

43'

Conor Hourihane

59'

J. Vardy← K. Iheanacho

63'

A. El Ghazi← Ahmed El Mohamady

63'

J. VardyPenalty

67'

K. Davis← C. Hourihane

71'

Dennis Praet

76'

Jonny Evans

76'

Y. Tielemans← D. Praet

79'

J. Vardy

83'

N. Mendy← W. Ndidi

85'

H. Barnes↳ M. Albrighton

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeicesterAston

Overview

64%Possession36%

15Total Shots4

9Corners0

15Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots4

7On Target1

7Off Target3

1Blocked0

12Inside Box2

3Outside Box2

Passing

64%Possession36%

543Total Passes301

447Accurate Passes209

82%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls12

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides2