Leeds 3–1 Tottenham: Result & Stats

Leeds

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Tottenham

Rodrigo 84'

P. Bamford 42'

S. Dallas 13'

Son Heung-Min 25'

5/8/2021

Premier League · Round 35Elland Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Leeds46%

×Draw25%

Tottenham30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeedsExpected goals in this matchTottenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.24

Leeds

1.60

Tottenham

1.24

Leeds creates 29% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 36 away

1.59

creates per match

1.17

1.31

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Leeds

1.59

Tottenham

1.17

allows per match

Leeds

1.31

Tottenham

1.62

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

+0.30scores more than expected

finishing

Leeds-0.13scores less

Tottenham+0.30scores more

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leeds ↓

Tottenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Leeds or draw

70%

Leeds or Tottenham

75%

Draw or Tottenham

54%

Winning margin

Leeds wins by 2+

23%

Tottenham wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Leeds 1+ goals

80%

Leeds 2+ goals

47%

Leeds 3+ goals

22%

Tottenham 1+ goals

71%

Tottenham 2+ goals

35%

Tottenham 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Leeds (draw refunded)

61%

Tottenham (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leeds at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.31 · 24 matches

Tottenham away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.62 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leeds attack 1.59 + Tottenham defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.60

Tottenham attack 1.17 + Leeds defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Leeds scores more

46%

level

25%

Tottenham scores more

30%

Leeds at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Leeds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

S. Dallas

Leeds · M

7.6

Match Events

13'

S. Dallas

25'

Son Heung-Min↳ D. Alli

31'

Harry KanePenalty confirmed

42'

P. Bamford↳ E. Alioski

51'

58'

61'

67'

67'

68'

79'

80'

T. Ndombèlé← G. Lo Celso

84'

Rodrigo↳ Raphinha

85'

RodrigoGoal cancelled

90'

K. Phillips← M. Klich

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeedsTottenham

Overview

53%Possession47%

16Total Shots11

8Corners6

12Fouls10

Shots

16Total Shots11

7On Target3

5Off Target4

4Blocked4

12Inside Box7

4Outside Box4

Passing

53%Possession47%

442Total Passes395

352Accurate Passes296

80%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls10

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2