Lech Poznan 1–1 Arka Gdynia: Result & Stats

Lech Poznan

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Arka Gdynia

L. Palma 57'

K. Hermoso 52'

5/8/2026

Ekstraklasa · Round 32Stadion Poznan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Lech Poznan60%

×Draw22%

Arka Gdynia18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lech PoznanExpected goals in this matchArka Gdynia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

0.93

Lech Poznan

1.88

Arka Gdynia

0.93

Lech Poznan creates 102% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 55 away

1.93

creates per match

0.91

0.95

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Lech Poznan

1.93

Arka Gdynia

0.91

allows per match

Lech Poznan

0.95

Arka Gdynia

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lech Poznan+0.00on par

Arka Gdynia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lech Poznan ↓

Arka Gdynia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Lech Poznan or draw

82%

Lech Poznan or Arka Gdynia

78%

Draw or Arka Gdynia

40%

Winning margin

Lech Poznan wins by 2+

35%

Arka Gdynia wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Lech Poznan 1+ goals

85%

Lech Poznan 2+ goals

56%

Lech Poznan 3+ goals

29%

Arka Gdynia 1+ goals

61%

Arka Gdynia 2+ goals

24%

Arka Gdynia 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Lech Poznan (draw refunded)

77%

Arka Gdynia (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lech Poznan at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.95 · 135 matches

Arka Gdynia away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.82 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lech Poznan attack 1.93 + Arka Gdynia defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.88

Arka Gdynia attack 0.91 + Lech Poznan defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Lech Poznan scores more

60%

level

22%

Arka Gdynia scores more

18%

Lech Poznan at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Lech Poznan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

J. Pereira

Lech Poznan · D

9.2

Match Events

22'

Patrik WålemarkPenalty cancelled

22'

Dawid Gojny

25'

M. Rzuchowski← L. Perea

46'

46'

52'

57'

61'

61'

E. D. Espiau Hernandez← V. Gutkovskis

64'

P. Rodriguez← L. Bengtsson

65'

Dominick Zator

82'

Y. Agnero← A. Kozubal

82'

D. Hakans← L. Palma

85'

P. Szysz← S. Kerk

85'

D. Kocyla← D. Abramowicz

88'

Robert Gumny

90+8'

Nazariy Rusyn

90+4'

Jędrzej Grobelny

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LechArka

Overview

81%Possession19%

26Total Shots7

1.84Expected Goals (xG)0.72

15Corners5

7Fouls13

Shots

26Total Shots7

7On Target2

12Off Target4

7Blocked1

19Inside Box5

7Outside Box2

Passing

81%Possession19%

661Total Passes159

574Accurate Passes91

87%Pass Accuracy57%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

0.67Goals Prevented0.67

Discipline

7Fouls13

1Yellow Cards4