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Lech Poznan vs Arka Gdynia — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Lech Poznan
Lech Poznan
FT
0 – 2
Arka Gdynia
Arka Gdynia
7/9/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Lech Poznan45%
×Draw28%
Arka Gdynia27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lech Poznan
1.29
Arka Gdynia
0.92

Lech Poznan creates 40% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 3 away

creates per match

Lech Poznan
1.58
Arka Gdynia
0.67

allows per match

Lech Poznan
1.17
Arka Gdynia
1.00

finishing

Lech Poznan+0.00on par
Arka Gdynia+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lech Poznan ↓

Arka Gdynia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Lech Poznan or draw
73%
Lech Poznan or Arka Gdynia
72%
Draw or Arka Gdynia
55%

Winning margin

Lech Poznan wins by 2+
21%
Arka Gdynia wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lech Poznan 1+ goals
72%
Lech Poznan 2+ goals
37%
Lech Poznan 3+ goals
14%
Arka Gdynia 1+ goals
60%
Arka Gdynia 2+ goals
23%
Arka Gdynia 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Lech Poznan (draw refunded)
63%
Arka Gdynia (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lech Poznan at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Arka Gdynia away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lech Poznan attack 1.58 + Arka Gdynia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Arka Gdynia attack 0.67 + Lech Poznan defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Lech Poznan scores more
45%
level
28%
Arka Gdynia scores more
27%

Lech Poznan at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lech Poznan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lech Poznan vs Arka Gdynia

Arka Gdynia beat Lech Poznan 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 9, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Opalenica.