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Lech Poznan vs Arka Gdynia — Ekstraklasa 2026

Lech Poznan
Lech Poznan
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Arka Gdynia
Arka Gdynia
12/19/2019EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 20INEA stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Lech Poznan56%
×Draw22%
Arka Gdynia22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lech Poznan
1.89
Arka Gdynia
1.10

Lech Poznan creates 72% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 5 away

creates per match

Lech Poznan
2.07
Arka Gdynia
0.97

allows per match

Lech Poznan
1.23
Arka Gdynia
1.71

finishing

Lech Poznan+0.15scores more
Arka Gdynia-0.57scores less

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lech Poznan ↓

Arka Gdynia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Lech Poznan or draw
78%
Lech Poznan or Arka Gdynia
78%
Draw or Arka Gdynia
44%

Winning margin

Lech Poznan wins by 2+
32%
Arka Gdynia wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Lech Poznan 1+ goals
85%
Lech Poznan 2+ goals
56%
Lech Poznan 3+ goals
29%
Arka Gdynia 1+ goals
67%
Arka Gdynia 2+ goals
30%
Arka Gdynia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Lech Poznan (draw refunded)
72%
Arka Gdynia (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lech Poznan at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.23 · 23 matches

Arka Gdynia away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.71 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lech Poznan attack 2.07 + Arka Gdynia defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.89

Arka Gdynia attack 0.97 + Lech Poznan defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Lech Poznan scores more
56%
level
22%
Arka Gdynia scores more
22%

Lech Poznan at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Lech Poznan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraklasa: Lech Poznan 1–1 Arka Gdynia

Lech Poznan and Arka Gdynia drew 1-1 in Ekstraklasa on December 19, 2019.

The match was played at INEA stadion in Poznań.