Arka Gdynia 0–0 Lech Poznan: Result & Stats

Arka Gdynia

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lech Poznan

8/17/2019

Ekstraklasa · Round 5Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Arka Gdynia34%

×Draw25%

Lech Poznan41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arka GdyniaExpected goals in this matchLech Poznan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.49

Arka Gdynia

1.33

Lech Poznan

1.49

Lech Poznan creates 12% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 27 away

1.55

creates per match

1.51

1.47

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Arka Gdynia

1.55

Lech Poznan

1.51

allows per match

Arka Gdynia

1.47

Lech Poznan

1.11

-0.38scores less than expected

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Arka Gdynia-0.38scores less

Lech Poznan-0.25scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arka Gdynia ↓

Lech Poznan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Arka Gdynia or draw

59%

Arka Gdynia or Lech Poznan

75%

Draw or Lech Poznan

66%

Winning margin

Arka Gdynia wins by 2+

15%

Lech Poznan wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Arka Gdynia 1+ goals

74%

Arka Gdynia 2+ goals

38%

Arka Gdynia 3+ goals

15%

Lech Poznan 1+ goals

77%

Lech Poznan 2+ goals

44%

Lech Poznan 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Arka Gdynia (draw refunded)

45%

Lech Poznan (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arka Gdynia at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.47 · 6 matches

Lech Poznan away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.11 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arka Gdynia attack 1.55 + Lech Poznan defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.33

Lech Poznan attack 1.51 + Arka Gdynia defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Arka Gdynia scores more

34%

level

25%

Lech Poznan scores more

41%

Lech Poznan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Lech Poznan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff