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Laval vs Clermont Foot — Ligue 2 2018

Laval
Laval
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Clermont Foot
Clermont Foot
M. Sellouki 29'
M. Douane 87'
J. Gastien 68'
10/29/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 11Stade Francis Le Basser

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Laval37%
×Draw29%
Clermont Foot34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Laval
1.15
Clermont Foot
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 95 home / 98 away

creates per match

Laval
1.15
Clermont Foot
0.99

allows per match

Laval
1.20
Clermont Foot
1.16

finishing

Laval+0.00on par
Clermont Foot+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laval ↓

Clermont Foot →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Laval or draw
66%
Laval or Clermont Foot
71%
Draw or Clermont Foot
63%

Winning margin

Laval wins by 2+
15%
Clermont Foot wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Laval 1+ goals
68%
Laval 2+ goals
32%
Laval 3+ goals
11%
Clermont Foot 1+ goals
66%
Clermont Foot 2+ goals
30%
Clermont Foot 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Laval (draw refunded)
52%
Clermont Foot (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laval at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.20 · 95 matches

Clermont Foot away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.16 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laval attack 1.15 + Clermont Foot defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.15

Clermont Foot attack 0.99 + Laval defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Laval scores more
37%
level
29%
Clermont Foot scores more
34%

Laval at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Laval will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
M. SelloukiLavalLaval · M
8.2

Match Events

29'
M. Sellouki
44'
Maidine Douane
54'
Jimmy Roye
61'
M. Baaloudj← H. Saivet
65'
T. Thomas← J. Roye
65'
S. Doucouré← M. Tchokounté
68'
J. Gastien
71'
Y. Armougom← C. Konaté
71'
Y. Magnin← F. Diédhiou
71'
M. Bassouamina← O. Diop
73'
Loïs Martins← M. Camara
85'
M. Bouchenna← J. Gastien
87'
M. Douane↳ M. Bassouamina
90+1'
Massamba Ndiaye

Possession

45%Laval

Shots

14Laval

Pass accuracy

49%Laval

Statistics

LavalClermont
Overview
45%Possession55%
14Total Shots9
3Corners4
14Fouls9
Shots
14Total Shots9
4On Target4
6Off Target3
4Blocked2
11Inside Box6
3Outside Box3
Passing
45%Possession55%
419Total Passes507
339Accurate Passes434
81%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls9
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Laval vs Clermont Foot

Clermont Foot beat Laval 2-1 in Ligue 2 on October 29, 2024.

Goals: M. Sellouki (29'), J. Gastien (68'), M. Douane (87').

Clermont Foot controlled possession (55%) and registered 9 shots to 14.

The match was played at Stade Francis Le Basser in Laval.