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Clermont Foot vs Laval — Ligue 2 2018

Clermont Foot
Clermont Foot
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Laval
Laval
J. Astic 90'
A. Baallal 69'
E. Cantero 49'
I. Fakili 17' (pen)
T. Guivarch 79' (OG)
1/3/2026Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 18Stade Gabriel Montpied

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Clermont Foot44%
×Draw28%
Laval28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Clermont Foot
1.31
Laval
0.98

Clermont Foot creates 34% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 97 away

creates per match

Clermont Foot
1.31
Laval
0.94

allows per match

Clermont Foot
1.03
Laval
1.30

finishing

Clermont Foot+0.00on par
Laval+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clermont Foot ↓

Laval →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Clermont Foot or draw
72%
Clermont Foot or Laval
72%
Draw or Laval
56%

Winning margin

Clermont Foot wins by 2+
20%
Laval wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Clermont Foot 1+ goals
73%
Clermont Foot 2+ goals
38%
Clermont Foot 3+ goals
14%
Laval 1+ goals
62%
Laval 2+ goals
26%
Laval 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Clermont Foot (draw refunded)
61%
Laval (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clermont Foot at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.03 · 94 matches

Laval away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.30 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clermont Foot attack 1.31 + Laval defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.31

Laval attack 0.94 + Clermont Foot defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Clermont Foot scores more
44%
level
28%
Laval scores more
28%

Clermont Foot at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Clermont Foot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
A. BaallalClermont FootClermont Foot · M
8.0

Match Events

17'
I. FakiliPenalty
29'
Ethan Clavreul
38'
Peter Ouaneh
46'
Y. Aradj← L. Samb
49'
E. Cantero
62'
L. Socka Bongue← A. Camblan
66'
S. Sanna← E. Montet
66'
N. Mupemba← E. Clavreul
69'
A. Baallal
72'
J. Astic← A. Ackra
72'
F. Diedhiou← E. Cantero
74'
T. Pellenard← E. Maddy
74'
J. Maggiotti← M. Sellouki
79'
T. GuivarchOwn goal
90+4'
M. Caufriez← I. Fakili
90+3'
Y. Bellache← J. Gastien
90'
J. Astic↳ F. Diedhiou

Possession

57%Clermont

Shots

13Clermont

Pass accuracy

51%Clermont

Statistics

ClermontLaval
Overview
57%Possession43%
13Total Shots7
1Corners4
14Fouls20
Shots
13Total Shots7
7On Target0
2Off Target5
4Blocked2
5Inside Box2
8Outside Box5
Passing
57%Possession43%
574Total Passes422
493Accurate Passes350
86%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls20
0Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

Ligue 2: Clermont Foot 4–1 Laval

Clermont Foot beat Laval 4-1 in Ligue 2 on January 3, 2026.

Goals: I. Fakili (17' pen), E. Cantero (49'), A. Baallal (69'), T. Guivarch (79' o.g.), J. Astic (90').

Clermont Foot controlled possession (57%) and registered 13 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stade Gabriel Montpied in Clermont-Ferrand.