Las Palmas 3–1 Eibar: Result & Stats

Las Palmas

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Eibar

E. Clemente 90'

M. Lukovic 66'

A. Garcia 42'

Javier Marton 83'

10/19/2025

Segunda División · Round 10Estadio de Gran Canaria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Las Palmas45%

×Draw28%

Eibar27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Las PalmasExpected goals in this matchEibar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.94

Las Palmas

1.32

Eibar

0.94

Las Palmas creates 40% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 108 away

1.47

creates per match

0.99

0.89

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Las Palmas

1.47

Eibar

0.99

allows per match

Las Palmas

0.89

Eibar

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Las Palmas+0.00on par

Eibar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Palmas ↓

Eibar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Las Palmas or draw

73%

Las Palmas or Eibar

72%

Draw or Eibar

55%

Winning margin

Las Palmas wins by 2+

21%

Eibar wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Las Palmas 1+ goals

73%

Las Palmas 2+ goals

38%

Las Palmas 3+ goals

15%

Eibar 1+ goals

61%

Eibar 2+ goals

24%

Eibar 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Las Palmas (draw refunded)

63%

Eibar (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Palmas at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.89 · 128 matches

Eibar away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.18 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Palmas attack 1.47 + Eibar defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.32

Eibar attack 0.99 + Las Palmas defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Las Palmas scores more

45%

level

28%

Eibar scores more

27%

Las Palmas at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Las Palmas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

J. Magunagoitia

Eibar · G

8.3

Match Events

42'

A. Garcia↳ L. Amatucci

60'

Anaitz Arbilla

62'

M. Fuster← I. Gil

66'

M. Lukovic↳ Marvin

71'

A. Garrido← P. Nolaskoain

71'

A. Ares← J. Guruzeta

71'

Javier Marton← J. Magunazelaia Argoitia

76'

X. Alkain← J. Corpas

79'

M. Cardona← M. Lukovic

79'

K. Rodriguez← A. Garcia

80'

J. Martinez← A. Arbilla

83'

Javier Marton↳ X. Alkain

86'

Marvin Park

89'

J. Herzog← Marvin

89'

I. Gonzalez← E. Loiodice

90+1'

Alex Suárez

90'

E. Clemente↳ K. Rodriguez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LasEibar

Overview

40%Possession60%

11Total Shots9

1Corners5

16Fouls17

Shots

11Total Shots9

9On Target2

0Off Target4

2Blocked3

8Inside Box6

3Outside Box3

Passing

40%Possession60%

329Total Passes493

254Accurate Passes412

77%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

16Fouls17

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides3