Eibar 3–1 Las Palmas: Result & Stats

Eibar

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Las Palmas

Javier Marton 43', 31'

A. Madariaga 16'

M. Fuster 17'

3/29/2026

Segunda División · Round 32Estadio Municipal de Ipurua

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Eibar49%

×Draw27%

Las Palmas24%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EibarExpected goals in this matchLas Palmas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.88

Eibar

1.39

Las Palmas

0.88

Eibar creates 58% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 128 away

1.56

creates per match

0.94

0.82

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Eibar

1.56

Las Palmas

0.94

allows per match

Eibar

0.82

Las Palmas

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eibar+0.00on par

Las Palmas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eibar ↓

Las Palmas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Eibar or draw

76%

Eibar or Las Palmas

73%

Draw or Las Palmas

51%

Winning margin

Eibar wins by 2+

24%

Las Palmas wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Eibar 1+ goals

75%

Eibar 2+ goals

40%

Eibar 3+ goals

16%

Las Palmas 1+ goals

59%

Las Palmas 2+ goals

22%

Las Palmas 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Eibar (draw refunded)

67%

Las Palmas (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eibar at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.82 · 108 matches

Las Palmas away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.22 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eibar attack 1.56 + Las Palmas defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.39

Las Palmas attack 0.94 + Eibar defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Eibar scores more

49%

level

27%

Las Palmas scores more

24%

Eibar at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Eibar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

Javier Marton

Eibar · F

8.9

Match Events

16'

A. Madariaga

17'

M. Fuster↳ Viti

21'

Javier MartónGoal cancelled

31'

Javier Marton↳ A. Garrido

43'

Javier Marton↳ S. Cubero

57'

José Corpas

58'

E. Pedrola← A. Garcia

66'

L. Olaetxea← A. Garrido

66'

J. Bautista← Javier Marton

68'

I. Bravo← Jese

68'

Pejino← K. Rodriguez

71'

Lander Olaetxea

75'

J. Martinez← A. Madariaga

80'

Mika Mármol

81'

Jon Mikel Magunagoitia

84'

I. Gil← M. Fuster

84'

Alex Suarez← Sergio Barcia

87'

Jon Bautista

87'

A. Rodriguez← J. Corpas

87'

A. Ares← J. Guruzeta

90+2'

Alex Suárez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EibarLas

Overview

31%Possession69%

9Total Shots21

2.16Expected Goals (xG)1.74

2Corners10

15Fouls7

Shots

9Total Shots21

7On Target4

2Off Target8

0Blocked9

6Inside Box14

3Outside Box7

Passing

31%Possession69%

301Total Passes658

217Accurate Passes574

72%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls7

4Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1

Segunda División: Eibar 3–1 Las Palmas

Eibar beat Las Palmas 3-1 in Segunda División on March 29, 2026.

Goals: A. Madariaga (16'), M. Fuster (17'), Javier Marton (31', 43').

Las Palmas controlled possession (69%) and registered 21 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Ipurua in Eibar.

Eibar vs Las Palmas — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Eibar 3–1 Las Palmas