Las Palmas vs Eibar — Segunda División 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 108+ matches
Las Palmas45%
Eibar27%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Las Palmas creates 40% more chances
Season form · 128 home / 108 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under61
- Over39
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No55
- Yes45
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Las Palmas ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Las Palmas at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.89 · 128 matches
Eibar away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.18 · 108 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Las Palmas attack 1.47 + Eibar defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.32
Eibar attack 0.99 + Las Palmas defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.94
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
Las Palmas at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "Las Palmas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Racing Santander
Malaga
Almeria
Deportivo La CorunaLas Palmas
Castellón
BurgosEibar
Sporting Gijon
Cordoba
AD Ceuta FC
Albacete
FC Andorra
Granada CF
Real Sociedad II
Leganes
Valladolid
Cadiz
Mirandes
Huesca
Cultural Leonesa
ZaragozaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Las Palmas host Eibar on Sunday, 6 November 2022 at 17:30. The match is part of the Segunda División 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Las Palmas vs Eibar
Las Palmas and Eibar drew 1-1 in Segunda División on November 6, 2022.
Goals: Álex Suárez (24'), José Corpas (26').
Las Palmas controlled possession (69%) and registered 14 shots to 10.
The match was played at Estadio de Gran Canaria in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria.