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Eibar vs Las Palmas — Segunda División 2018

Eibar
Eibar
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Las Palmas
Las Palmas
Llorente 80'
Stoichkov 4'
Jesé 45' (pen)
A. Sadiku 22'
4/15/2022Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 36Estadio Municipal de Ipurúa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Eibar49%
×Draw27%
Las Palmas24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eibar
1.39
Las Palmas
0.88

Eibar creates 58% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 128 away

creates per match

Eibar
1.56
Las Palmas
0.94

allows per match

Eibar
0.82
Las Palmas
1.22

finishing

Eibar+0.00on par
Las Palmas+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eibar ↓

Las Palmas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Eibar or draw
76%
Eibar or Las Palmas
73%
Draw or Las Palmas
51%

Winning margin

Eibar wins by 2+
24%
Las Palmas wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Eibar 1+ goals
75%
Eibar 2+ goals
40%
Eibar 3+ goals
16%
Las Palmas 1+ goals
59%
Las Palmas 2+ goals
22%
Las Palmas 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Eibar (draw refunded)
67%
Las Palmas (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eibar at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.82 · 108 matches

Las Palmas away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.22 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eibar attack 1.56 + Las Palmas defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.39

Las Palmas attack 0.94 + Eibar defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Eibar scores more
49%
level
27%
Las Palmas scores more
24%

Eibar at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Eibar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
LlorenteEibarEibar · F
8.2

Match Events

4'
Stoichkov↳ Llorente
22'
A. Sadiku↳ Jonathan Viera
23'
Jesé Rodríguez
45'
JeséPenalty
46'
Etxeita← Alvaro Roncal
61'
Ager Aketxe← Quique González
69'
Fran Sol← Stoichkov
70'
Xabier Etxeita
70'
Álvaro Lemos
70'
Y. Rahmani← José Corpas
74'
Fabio González← Jesé
74'
Rober← Alberto Moleiro
76'
Chema
80'
Llorente↳ Y. Rahmani
83'
Rafa Mújica← A. Sadiku
90+2'
Fabio González
90+1'
G. Blanco← Llorente

Possession

43%Eibar

Shots

13Eibar

Pass accuracy

47%Eibar

Statistics

EibarLas
Overview
43%Possession57%
13Total Shots12
12Corners3
9Fouls11
Shots
13Total Shots12
5On Target5
5Off Target6
3Blocked1
9Inside Box7
4Outside Box5
Passing
43%Possession57%
358Total Passes505
270Accurate Passes420
75%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
9Fouls11
2Yellow Cards3
4Offsides1

Match Recap: Eibar vs Las Palmas

Eibar and Las Palmas drew 2-2 in Segunda División on April 15, 2022.

Goals: Stoichkov (4'), A. Sadiku (22'), Jesé (45' pen), Llorente (80').

Las Palmas controlled possession (57%) and registered 12 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Ipurúa in Eibar.