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Lanus vs Atletico Tucuman — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Lanus
Lanus
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Atletico Tucuman
Atletico Tucuman
Marcelino Moreno 76'
E. Salvio 72'
J. Canale Dominguez 19'
R. Ruiz 32'
11/14/2025Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 16Estadio Ciudad de Lanús - Néstor Díaz Pérez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Lanus43%
×Draw28%
Atletico Tucuman29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lanus
1.27
Atletico Tucuman
0.98

Lanus creates 30% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 20 away

creates per match

Lanus
1.22
Atletico Tucuman
1.08

allows per match

Lanus
0.87
Atletico Tucuman
1.32

finishing

Lanus-0.09on par
Atletico Tucuman-0.43scores less

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lanus ↓

Atletico Tucuman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Lanus or draw
71%
Lanus or Atletico Tucuman
72%
Draw or Atletico Tucuman
57%

Winning margin

Lanus wins by 2+
19%
Atletico Tucuman wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lanus 1+ goals
72%
Lanus 2+ goals
36%
Lanus 3+ goals
14%
Atletico Tucuman 1+ goals
62%
Atletico Tucuman 2+ goals
26%
Atletico Tucuman 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Lanus (draw refunded)
60%
Atletico Tucuman (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lanus at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Atletico Tucuman away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.32 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lanus attack 1.22 + Atletico Tucuman defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.27

Atletico Tucuman attack 1.08 + Lanus defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lanus scores more
43%
level
28%
Atletico Tucuman scores more
29%

Lanus at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lanus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
J. Canale DominguezLanusLanus · D
8.2

Match Events

19'
J. Canale Dominguez↳ R. Castillo
32'
R. Ruiz↳ N. Lamendola
46'
D. Aquino← A. Medina
51'
Adrián Sánchez
58'
Lautaro Agustin Godoy
58'
L. Godoy← R. Ruiz
58'
C. Auzqui← A. Sanchez
65'
Eduardo SalvioGoal cancelled
72'
E. Salvio
73'
R. Tesuri← N. Lamendola
74'
F. Grillo← M. Brizuela
76'
Marcelino Moreno↳ S. Marcich
79'
F. N. Watson← E. Salvio
79'
J. Ramirez← Marcelino Moreno
86'
W. Bou← R. Castillo
88'
L. Acosta← R. Carrera
88'
E. Godoy← G. Acosta

Possession

61%Lanus

Shots

12Lanus

Pass accuracy

54%Lanus

Statistics

LanusAtletico
Overview
61%Possession39%
12Total Shots17
1.85Expected Goals (xG)1.14
1Corners3
7Fouls17
Shots
12Total Shots17
8On Target4
3Off Target8
1Blocked5
10Inside Box10
2Outside Box7
Passing
61%Possession39%
571Total Passes360
480Accurate Passes263
84%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
4Saves5
-0.01Goals Prevented-0.01
Discipline
7Fouls17
0Yellow Cards2
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Lanus vs Atletico Tucuman

Lanus beat Atletico Tucuman 3-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on November 14, 2025.

Goals: J. Canale Dominguez (19'), R. Ruiz (32'), E. Salvio (72'), Marcelino Moreno (76').

Lanus controlled possession (61%) and registered 12 shots to 17.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Lanús - Néstor Díaz Pérez in Lanús, Provincia de Buenos Aires.