Lanus 2–1 Atletico Tucuman: Result & Stats

Lanus

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Atletico Tucuman

R. Loaiza 45+2'

P. de la Vega 35'

M. Coronel 23'

6/5/2023

Liga Profesional Argentina · Round 19Estadio Ciudad de Lanús - Néstor Díaz Pérez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Lanus43%

×Draw28%

Atletico Tucuman29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LanusExpected goals in this matchAtletico Tucuman

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.98

Lanus

1.27

Atletico Tucuman

0.98

Lanus creates 30% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 20 away

1.22

creates per match

1.08

0.87

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Lanus

1.22

Atletico Tucuman

1.08

allows per match

Lanus

0.87

Atletico Tucuman

1.32

-0.09on par

finishing

-0.43scores less than expected

finishing

Lanus-0.09on par

Atletico Tucuman-0.43scores less

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lanus ↓

Atletico Tucuman →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Lanus or draw

71%

Lanus or Atletico Tucuman

72%

Draw or Atletico Tucuman

57%

Winning margin

Lanus wins by 2+

19%

Atletico Tucuman wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Lanus 1+ goals

72%

Lanus 2+ goals

36%

Lanus 3+ goals

14%

Atletico Tucuman 1+ goals

62%

Atletico Tucuman 2+ goals

26%

Atletico Tucuman 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Lanus (draw refunded)

60%

Atletico Tucuman (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lanus at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Atletico Tucuman away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.32 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lanus attack 1.22 + Atletico Tucuman defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.27

Atletico Tucuman attack 1.08 + Lanus defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lanus scores more

43%

level

28%

Atletico Tucuman scores more

29%

Lanus at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lanus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

P. de la Vega

Lanus · F

8.9

Match Events

15'

Felipe Aguilar

15'

Alexis Francisco Flores

23'

M. Coronel↳ M. Estigarribia

35'

P. de la Vega

45+2'

R. Loaiza↳ P. de la Vega

62'

G. Acosta← B. Kociubinski

62'

I. Maestro Puch← F. Di Franco

70'

L. Acosta← F. Orozco

70'

J. Fernández← R. Loaiza

79'

R. Ruiz Rodríguez← A. Sánchez

82'

F. Troyansky← M. Esquivel

85'

B. Guille← M. Coronel

86'

J. Sánchez Miño← P. de la Vega

87'

J. Sand← L. Díaz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LanusAtletico

Overview

43%Possession57%

30Total Shots13

10Corners5

11Fouls9

Shots

30Total Shots13

8On Target5

11Off Target4

11Blocked4

18Inside Box5

12Outside Box8

Passing

43%Possession57%

391Total Passes525

296Accurate Passes418

76%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

Discipline

11Fouls9

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1

Liga Profesional Argentina: Lanus 2–1 Atletico Tucuman

Lanus beat Atletico Tucuman 2-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on June 5, 2023.

Goals: M. Coronel (23'), P. de la Vega (35'), R. Loaiza (45+2').

Atletico Tucuman controlled possession (57%) and registered 13 shots to 30.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Lanús - Néstor Díaz Pérez in Lanús, Provincia de Buenos Aires.

Lanus vs Atletico Tucuman — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Liga Profesional Argentina: Lanus 2–1 Atletico Tucuman