Atletico Tucuman 1–0 Lanus: Result & Stats

Atletico Tucuman

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Lanus

M. Coronel 26'

10/28/2024

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 19Estadio Monumental Presidente José Fierro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Atletico Tucuman48%

×Draw28%

Lanus24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico TucumanExpected goals in this matchLanus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.86

Atletico Tucuman

1.33

Lanus

0.86

Atletico Tucuman creates 55% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 17 away

1.38

creates per match

0.83

0.89

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Atletico Tucuman

1.38

Lanus

0.83

allows per match

Atletico Tucuman

0.89

Lanus

1.29

+0.09on par

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Atletico Tucuman+0.09on par

Lanus-0.01on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Tucuman ↓

Lanus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Atletico Tucuman or draw

76%

Atletico Tucuman or Lanus

72%

Draw or Lanus

52%

Winning margin

Atletico Tucuman wins by 2+

22%

Lanus wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Atletico Tucuman 1+ goals

74%

Atletico Tucuman 2+ goals

38%

Atletico Tucuman 3+ goals

15%

Lanus 1+ goals

58%

Lanus 2+ goals

21%

Lanus 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Atletico Tucuman (draw refunded)

66%

Lanus (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Tucuman at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Lanus away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Tucuman attack 1.38 + Lanus defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.33

Lanus attack 0.83 + Atletico Tucuman defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Atletico Tucuman scores more

48%

level

28%

Lanus scores more

24%

Atletico Tucuman at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Atletico Tucuman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

G. Acosta

Atletico Tucuman · M

7.9

Match Events

22'

M. Estigarribia

26'

M. Coronel

46'

F. Peña← M. Gerez

46'

J. Cáceres← L. Irusta

61'

D. Aquino← B. Cabrera

65'

66'

78'

86'

88'

89'

N. Romero← M. Brandán

89'

T. Castro Ponce← M. Bajamich

90'

R. Melo← G. Acosta

90+6'

J. Giani← M. Coronel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoLanus

Overview

51%Possession49%

22Total Shots10

2.31Expected Goals (xG)0.35

11Corners2

14Fouls8

Shots

22Total Shots10

5On Target0

13Off Target3

4Blocked7

16Inside Box3

6Outside Box7

Passing

51%Possession49%

349Total Passes336

265Accurate Passes241

76%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

0.25Goals Prevented0.25

Discipline

14Fouls8

1Yellow Cards4

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Atletico Tucuman vs Lanus

Atletico Tucuman beat Lanus 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on October 28, 2024.

Goals: M. Coronel (26').

Atletico Tucuman controlled possession (51%) and registered 22 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental Presidente José Fierro in San Miguel de Tucumán, Provincia de Tucumán.

Atletico Tucuman vs Lanus — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Atletico Tucuman vs Lanus