Atletico Tucuman 1–0 Lanus: Result & Stats

Atletico Tucuman

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lanus

N. Franco 90'

5/4/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 16Estadio Monumental Jose Fierro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Atletico Tucuman47%

×Draw28%

Lanus25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico TucumanExpected goals in this matchLanus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.86

Atletico Tucuman

1.31

Lanus

0.86

Atletico Tucuman creates 52% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 18 away

1.38

creates per match

0.83

0.89

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Atletico Tucuman

1.38

Lanus

0.83

allows per match

Atletico Tucuman

0.89

Lanus

1.24

+0.09on par

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Atletico Tucuman+0.09on par

Lanus-0.05on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Tucuman ↓

Lanus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Atletico Tucuman or draw

75%

Atletico Tucuman or Lanus

72%

Draw or Lanus

53%

Winning margin

Atletico Tucuman wins by 2+

22%

Lanus wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Atletico Tucuman 1+ goals

73%

Atletico Tucuman 2+ goals

38%

Atletico Tucuman 3+ goals

14%

Lanus 1+ goals

58%

Lanus 2+ goals

21%

Lanus 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Atletico Tucuman (draw refunded)

66%

Lanus (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Tucuman at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Lanus away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.24 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Tucuman attack 1.38 + Lanus defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.31

Lanus attack 0.83 + Atletico Tucuman defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Atletico Tucuman scores more

47%

level

28%

Lanus scores more

25%

Atletico Tucuman at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Atletico Tucuman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

G. Acosta

Atletico Tucuman · M

8.0

Match Events

8'

8'

21'

34'

45'

46'

M. Orihuela← M. Brizuela

46'

N. Franco← N. Lamendola

56'

M. Coronel← M. Bajamich

61'

G. Acosta← K. Lopez

70'

F. Sanchez← A. Rodriguez

76'

W. Bou← A. Canelo

76'

E. Salvio← D. Aquino

77'

R. Ruiz← C. Auzqui

77'

S. Marcich← O. Ontivero

81'

Marcelino Moreno← J. Ramirez

88'

G. Acosta

90+7'

M. Orihuela

90'

N. Franco↳ A. Sanchez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoLanus

Overview

48%Possession52%

15Total Shots11

5Corners5

19Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots11

3On Target2

8Off Target6

4Blocked3

8Inside Box5

7Outside Box6

Passing

48%Possession52%

356Total Passes393

285Accurate Passes317

80%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

19Fouls10

6Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1

Match Recap: Atletico Tucuman vs Lanus

Atletico Tucuman beat Lanus 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on May 4, 2025.

Goals: N. Franco (90').

Lanus controlled possession (52%) and registered 11 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental Jose Fierro in Tucuman.

Atletico Tucuman vs Lanus — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Atletico Tucuman vs Lanus