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Kyran vs FK Aksu — Cup 2019

Kyran
Kyran
FT
2 – 5
HT: 1 – 3
FK Aksu
FK Aksu
S. Abzhal 55' (pen)
A. Tuleev 14'
D. Kalym 90+5'
M. Turlybek 51'
A. Kakimov 45+1', 21', 2'
3/19/2024CupCup · Qualifying Round - 3BIIK Futbol'noye Pole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Kyran35%
×Draw24%
FK Aksu41%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kyran
1.44
FK Aksu
1.58

FK Aksu creates 10% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Kyran
1.20
FK Aksu
1.17

allows per match

Kyran
2.00
FK Aksu
1.67

finishing

Kyran+0.00on par
FK Aksu+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyran ↓

FK Aksu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Kyran or draw
59%
Kyran or FK Aksu
76%
Draw or FK Aksu
65%

Winning margin

Kyran wins by 2+
16%
FK Aksu wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Kyran 1+ goals
76%
Kyran 2+ goals
42%
Kyran 3+ goals
18%
FK Aksu 1+ goals
79%
FK Aksu 2+ goals
47%
FK Aksu 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Kyran (draw refunded)
46%
FK Aksu (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyran at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

FK Aksu away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyran attack 1.20 + FK Aksu defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.44

FK Aksu attack 1.17 + Kyran defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kyran scores more
35%
level
24%
FK Aksu scores more
41%

FK Aksu at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FK Aksu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
A. Kakimov
14'
A. Tuleev
16'
Z. Erzhigit
21'
A. Kakimov
27'
D. Denisov
31'
M. Zakariya
39'
K. Abdimutalipov← K. Abdimutalipov
43'
A. Amanbay
45+1'
A. Kakimov
45+2'
A. Kasain
50'
S. Serhan← S. Serhan
51'
M. Turlybek
54'
D. Duysembek
55'
S. AbzhalPenalty
66'
A. Oksikbaev← A. Oksikbaev
70'
B. Zhaksybayuly
71'
A. Muralinov
73'
I. Umarov
76'
D. Kuanishbay
78'
E. Baydrakhmanov← E. Baydrakhmanov
85'
D. Kalym← D. Kalym
90+1'
M. Golubnichiy← Z. Kabdyrken
90+5'
D. Kalym

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Kyran 2–5 FK Aksu

FK Aksu beat Kyran 5-2 in Cup on March 19, 2024.

Goals: A. Kakimov (2', 21', 45+1'), A. Tuleev (14'), M. Turlybek (51'), S. Abzhal (55' pen), D. Kalym (90+5').

The match was played at BIIK Futbol'noye Pole in Shymkent.