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Kyran vs FK Aksu — 1. Division 2019

Kyran
Kyran
FT
1 – 3
FK Aksu
FK Aksu
A. Novotryasov 80'
M. Turlybek 90+1' (pen), 89'
M. Matvienko 5'
10/1/20211. Division1. Division · Round 19Futbol Ortalığı BÏİK Main Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Kyran33%
×Draw23%
FK Aksu44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kyran
1.55
FK Aksu
1.83

FK Aksu creates 18% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 11 away

creates per match

Kyran
2.11
FK Aksu
2.18

allows per match

Kyran
1.47
FK Aksu
1.00

finishing

Kyran+0.00on par
FK Aksu+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyran ↓

FK Aksu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Kyran or draw
56%
Kyran or FK Aksu
77%
Draw or FK Aksu
67%

Winning margin

Kyran wins by 2+
16%
FK Aksu wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Kyran 1+ goals
79%
Kyran 2+ goals
46%
Kyran 3+ goals
20%
FK Aksu 1+ goals
84%
FK Aksu 2+ goals
54%
FK Aksu 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Kyran (draw refunded)
43%
FK Aksu (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyran at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.47 · 62 matches

FK Aksu away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyran attack 2.11 + FK Aksu defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.55

FK Aksu attack 2.18 + Kyran defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kyran scores more
33%
level
23%
FK Aksu scores more
44%

FK Aksu at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FK Aksu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
M. Matvienko
80'
A. Novotryasov
89'
M. Turlybek
90+1'
M. TurlybekPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Kyran 1–3 FK Aksu

FK Aksu beat Kyran 3-1 in 1. Division on October 1, 2021.

Goals: M. Matvienko (5'), A. Novotryasov (80'), M. Turlybek (89', 90+1' pen).

The match was played at Futbol Ortalığı BÏİK Main Field in Shymkent.