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FK Aksu vs Kyran — 1. Division 2019

FK Aksu
FK Aksu
FT
1 – 1
Kyran
Kyran
B. Kudayberdinov 18' (OG)
6/19/20211. Division1. Division · Round 9Ortalıq Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

FK Aksu62%
×Draw19%
Kyran19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Aksu
2.37
Kyran
1.23

FK Aksu creates 93% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 59 away

creates per match

FK Aksu
2.64
Kyran
1.73

allows per match

FK Aksu
0.73
Kyran
2.10

finishing

FK Aksu+0.00on par
Kyran+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Aksu ↓

Kyran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

FK Aksu or draw
81%
FK Aksu or Kyran
81%
Draw or Kyran
38%

Winning margin

FK Aksu wins by 2+
40%
Kyran wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

FK Aksu 1+ goals
91%
FK Aksu 2+ goals
68%
FK Aksu 3+ goals
42%
Kyran 1+ goals
71%
Kyran 2+ goals
35%
Kyran 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

FK Aksu (draw refunded)
77%
Kyran (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Aksu at home — creates 2.64, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

Kyran away — creates 1.73, concedes 2.10 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Aksu attack 2.64 + Kyran defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.37

Kyran attack 1.73 + FK Aksu defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

FK Aksu scores more
62%
level
19%
Kyran scores more
19%

FK Aksu at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "FK Aksu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
B. KudayberdinovOwn goal
75'
M. Turlybek

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FK Aksu 1 – 1 Kyran

FK Aksu and Kyran drew 1-1 in 1. Division on June 19, 2021.

Goals: B. Kudayberdinov (18' o.g.), M. Turlybek (75').

The match was played at Ortalıq Stadion in Pavlodar.