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Aksu vs Kyran — Cup 2019

Aksu
Aksu
FT
2 – 1
Kyran
Kyran
5/1/2021CupCup · 2nd Preliminary RoundOrtalıq Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Aksu27%
×Draw20%
Kyran52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aksu
1.60
Kyran
2.25

Kyran creates 41% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Aksu
1.00
Kyran
3.00

allows per match

Aksu
1.50
Kyran
2.20

finishing

Aksu+0.00on par
Kyran+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aksu ↓

Kyran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Aksu or draw
48%
Aksu or Kyran
80%
Draw or Kyran
73%

Winning margin

Aksu wins by 2+
13%
Kyran wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Aksu 1+ goals
80%
Aksu 2+ goals
47%
Aksu 3+ goals
22%
Kyran 1+ goals
89%
Kyran 2+ goals
65%
Kyran 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Aksu (draw refunded)
34%
Kyran (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aksu at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Kyran away — creates 3.00, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aksu attack 1.00 + Kyran defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.60

Kyran attack 3.00 + Aksu defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Aksu scores more
27%
level
20%
Kyran scores more
52%

Kyran at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Kyran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Aksu 2–1 Kyran

Aksu beat Kyran 2-1 in Cup on May 1, 2021.

The match was played at Ortalıq Stadion in Pavlodar.