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Kristianstad W vs Piteå W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Kristianstad W
Kristianstad W
Preview
12:00
Piteå W
Piteå W
9/20/2026DamallsvenskanDamallsvenskan · Round 19Kristianstad Arena
Big match
52%
Kristianstad W
model favours
52%24%24%

Piteå W score first in only 15% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Kristianstad W52%
×Draw24%
Piteå W24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kristianstad W
1.71
Piteå W
1.07

Kristianstad W creates 60% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 79 away

creates per match

Kristianstad W
2.01
Piteå W
1.00

allows per match

Kristianstad W
1.14
Piteå W
1.42

finishing

Kristianstad W+0.00on par
Piteå W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kristianstad W ↓

Piteå W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Kristianstad W or draw
76%
Kristianstad W or Piteå W
76%
Draw or Piteå W
48%

Winning margin

Kristianstad W wins by 2+
28%
Piteå W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kristianstad W 1+ goals
82%
Kristianstad W 2+ goals
51%
Kristianstad W 3+ goals
24%
Piteå W 1+ goals
66%
Piteå W 2+ goals
29%
Piteå W 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kristianstad W (draw refunded)
69%
Piteå W (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kristianstad W at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.14 · 80 matches

Piteå W away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.42 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kristianstad W attack 2.01 + Piteå W defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.71

Piteå W attack 1.00 + Kristianstad W defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Kristianstad W scores more
52%
level
24%
Piteå W scores more
24%

Kristianstad W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Kristianstad W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Kristianstad W win just 35% against the top half (vs 68% against the bottom)
  • Piteå W win just 21% against the top half (vs 54% against the bottom)
  • Style contrast — Kristianstad W play Attack-heavy, Piteå W Direct / counter-attacking
  • Piteå W fall short of their xG (0.7 vs 1.5 expected)
  • Kristianstad W outscore their xG (2.2 vs 1.9 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Kristianstad W
Attack-heavy
Piteå W
Direct / counter-attacking
54%Possession41%
77%Pass accuracy70%
13.8ShotsBiggest gap10.5
1.85xG1.46
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Kristianstad WPiteå W

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5
Kristianstad W
2
Draws
3
Piteå W
Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 60%
3–20–21–10–12–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
LWDLL
W
DLLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kristianstad W vs Piteå W — Match Preview

Kristianstad W face Piteå W on September 20, 2026 in this Damallsvenskan fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Kristianstad W host Piteå W at Kristianstad Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.