Konyaspor 1–1 Göztepe: Result & Stats

Konyaspor

AET

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Göztepe

L. Prip 105+1'

O. Ülgün 75'

Héliton 60'

1/18/2024

Türkiye Kupası · 5th RoundMedaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Konyaspor58%

×Draw20%

Göztepe23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KonyasporExpected goals in this matchGöztepe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.41

Konyaspor

2.33

Göztepe

1.41

Konyaspor creates 65% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 12 away

3.33

creates per match

2.08

0.73

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Konyaspor

3.33

Göztepe

2.08

allows per match

Konyaspor

0.73

Göztepe

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Konyaspor+0.00on par

Göztepe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Konyaspor ↓

Göztepe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Konyaspor or draw

77%

Konyaspor or Göztepe

80%

Draw or Göztepe

42%

Winning margin

Konyaspor wins by 2+

36%

Göztepe wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Konyaspor 1+ goals

90%

Konyaspor 2+ goals

67%

Konyaspor 3+ goals

41%

Göztepe 1+ goals

76%

Göztepe 2+ goals

41%

Göztepe 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Konyaspor (draw refunded)

72%

Göztepe (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Konyaspor at home — creates 3.33, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Göztepe away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Konyaspor attack 3.33 + Göztepe defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.33

Göztepe attack 2.08 + Konyaspor defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Konyaspor scores more

58%

level

20%

Göztepe scores more

23%

Konyaspor at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Konyaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Héliton← D. Erdoğan

46'

D. Tijanič← R. Lundqvist

56'

58'

60'

64'

64'

S. Çikalleshi← Nélson Oliveira

65'

Ahmet Oğuz

67'

K. Kanatsızkuş← Ü. Akdağ

67'

73'

75'

81'

86'

M. Moreno← K. Demirtaş

90+4'

C. Karayel← A. Oğuz

91'

L. Nielsen← T. Altıkardeş

98'

Y. Subaşı← U. Yazğılı

98'

105+1'

109'

113'

117'

Statistics

KonyasporGöztepe

Overview

6Corners8

Discipline

1Yellow Cards3

Türkiye Kupası: Konyaspor 1–1 Göztepe

Konyaspor and Göztepe drew 1-1 in Türkiye Kupası on January 18, 2024.

Goals: Héliton (60'), O. Ülgün (75'), L. Prip (105+1').

The match was played at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu in Konya.

Konyaspor vs Göztepe — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Statistics

Türkiye Kupası: Konyaspor 1–1 Göztepe