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Göztepe vs Konyaspor — League #203 2026

Göztepe
Göztepe
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Konyaspor
Konyaspor
K. Matsuki 0 90+10'
Rômulo 90+8' (pen)
11/10/2024League #203League #203 · Round 12Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Göztepe41%
×Draw26%
Konyaspor33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Göztepe
1.44
Konyaspor
1.25

Göztepe creates 15% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 18 away

creates per match

Göztepe
1.10
Konyaspor
1.11

allows per match

Göztepe
1.40
Konyaspor
1.78

finishing

Göztepe+0.00on par
Konyaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Göztepe ↓

Konyaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Göztepe or draw
67%
Göztepe or Konyaspor
74%
Draw or Konyaspor
59%

Winning margin

Göztepe wins by 2+
20%
Konyaspor wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Göztepe 1+ goals
76%
Göztepe 2+ goals
42%
Göztepe 3+ goals
18%
Konyaspor 1+ goals
71%
Konyaspor 2+ goals
36%
Konyaspor 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Göztepe (draw refunded)
56%
Konyaspor (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Göztepe at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Konyaspor away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Göztepe attack 1.10 + Konyaspor defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.44

Konyaspor attack 1.11 + Göztepe defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Göztepe scores more
41%
level
26%
Konyaspor scores more
33%

Göztepe at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Göztepe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
JuanGöztepeGöztepe · F
7.9

Match Events

6'
Blaž Kramer
11'
Rômulo
13'
Malcom Bokele
62'
Juan← D. Fofana
62'
K. Matsuki← D. Tijanič
70'
O. Ülgün← D. Aleksić
70'
U. Nayir← B. Kramer
74'
İ. Köybaşı← Djalma Silva
74'
Victor Hugo← A. Ildız
79'
Oğulcan ÜlgünPenalty confirmed
82'
H. Keyta← Y. Erdoğan
82'
M. İbrahimoğlu← Pedrinho
86'
Riechedly Bazoer
88'
F. Damjanović← R. Bazoer
90+7'
İsmail Köybaşı
90+7'
Hamidou Keyta
90+10'
K. Günter← Rômulo
90+8'
RômuloPenalty
90+10'
K. Matsuki 0↳ Juan

Possession

50%Göztepe

Shots

17Göztepe

Pass accuracy

53%Göztepe

Statistics

GöztepeKonyaspor
Overview
50%Possession50%
17Total Shots12
2.42Expected Goals (xG)0.45
5Corners6
13Fouls9
Shots
17Total Shots12
5On Target3
7Off Target6
5Blocked3
8Inside Box4
9Outside Box8
Passing
50%Possession50%
327Total Passes308
222Accurate Passes189
68%Pass Accuracy61%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
0.41Goals Prevented0.41
Discipline
13Fouls9
3Yellow Cards3
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Göztepe vs Konyaspor

Göztepe beat Konyaspor 2-0 in League #203 on November 10, 2024.

Goals: Rômulo (90+8' pen), K. Matsuki 0 (90+10').

Göztepe controlled possession (50%) and registered 17 shots to 12.

The match was played at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu in İzmir.