King Faisal 0–0 Bibiani Gold Stars: Result & Stats

King Faisal

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bibiani Gold Stars

3/20/2023

Premier League · Round 22Dr. Kwame Kyei Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

King Faisal49%

×Draw28%

Bibiani Gold Stars23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

King FaisalExpected goals in this matchBibiani Gold Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.80

King Faisal

1.33

Bibiani Gold Stars

0.80

King Faisal creates 66% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 84 away

1.17

creates per match

0.70

0.91

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

King Faisal

1.17

Bibiani Gold Stars

0.70

allows per match

King Faisal

0.91

Bibiani Gold Stars

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

King Faisal+0.00on par

Bibiani Gold Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

King Faisal ↓

Bibiani Gold Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

King Faisal or draw

77%

King Faisal or Bibiani Gold Stars

72%

Draw or Bibiani Gold Stars

51%

Winning margin

King Faisal wins by 2+

23%

Bibiani Gold Stars wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

King Faisal 1+ goals

74%

King Faisal 2+ goals

38%

King Faisal 3+ goals

15%

Bibiani Gold Stars 1+ goals

55%

Bibiani Gold Stars 2+ goals

19%

Bibiani Gold Stars 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

King Faisal (draw refunded)

69%

Bibiani Gold Stars (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

King Faisal at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.91 · 58 matches

Bibiani Gold Stars away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.50 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

King Faisal attack 1.17 + Bibiani Gold Stars defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.33

Bibiani Gold Stars attack 0.70 + King Faisal defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

King Faisal scores more

49%

level

28%

Bibiani Gold Stars scores more

23%

King Faisal at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "King Faisal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

I. Suraj

28'

F. Adams

45+1'

W. A. Lawoe← W. A. Lawoe

58'

F. Amankwah

60'

M. Enu← M. Enu

71'

S. Kusi← S. Kusi

79'

G. Asiamah← G. Asiamah

85'

N. Ebla

89'

M. Enu

90+2'

R. Manu← R. Manu

90+2'

G. Kyei← G. Kyei

90+3'

F. Adams

90+3'

F. Adams

90+3'

I. Suraj

90+3'

I. Suraj

90+6'

M. Appiah

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff