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King Faisal vs Bibiani Gold Stars — Premier League 2019

King Faisal
King Faisal
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Bibiani Gold Stars
Bibiani Gold Stars
Z. Ibrahim 38'
I. Osman 21'
G. Kyei 45+2'
1/2/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Baba Yara Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

King Faisal49%
×Draw28%
Bibiani Gold Stars23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

King Faisal
1.32
Bibiani Gold Stars
0.81

King Faisal creates 63% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 84 away

creates per match

King Faisal
1.15
Bibiani Gold Stars
0.70

allows per match

King Faisal
0.93
Bibiani Gold Stars
1.50

finishing

King Faisal+0.00on par
Bibiani Gold Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

King Faisal ↓

Bibiani Gold Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

King Faisal or draw
77%
King Faisal or Bibiani Gold Stars
72%
Draw or Bibiani Gold Stars
51%

Winning margin

King Faisal wins by 2+
23%
Bibiani Gold Stars wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

King Faisal 1+ goals
73%
King Faisal 2+ goals
38%
King Faisal 3+ goals
15%
Bibiani Gold Stars 1+ goals
56%
Bibiani Gold Stars 2+ goals
19%
Bibiani Gold Stars 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

King Faisal (draw refunded)
68%
Bibiani Gold Stars (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

King Faisal at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.93 · 59 matches

Bibiani Gold Stars away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.50 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

King Faisal attack 1.15 + Bibiani Gold Stars defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.32

Bibiani Gold Stars attack 0.70 + King Faisal defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

King Faisal scores more
49%
level
28%
Bibiani Gold Stars scores more
23%

King Faisal at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "King Faisal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
I. Osman
38'
Z. Ibrahim
45+2'
G. Kyei

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: King Faisal vs Bibiani Gold Stars

King Faisal beat Bibiani Gold Stars 2-1 in Premier League on January 2, 2022.

Goals: I. Osman (21'), Z. Ibrahim (38'), G. Kyei (45+2').

The match was played at Baba Yara Stadium in Kumasi.