Bibiani Gold Stars 1–4 King Faisal: Result & Stats

Bibiani Gold Stars

FT

1 – 4

King Faisal

1/22/2023

Cup · Round of 32Bibiani Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bibiani Gold Stars25%

×Draw23%

King Faisal52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bibiani Gold StarsExpected goals in this matchKing Faisal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.83

Bibiani Gold Stars

1.20

King Faisal

1.83

King Faisal creates 53% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

1.00

creates per match

2.00

1.67

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Bibiani Gold Stars

1.00

King Faisal

2.00

allows per match

Bibiani Gold Stars

1.67

King Faisal

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bibiani Gold Stars+0.00on par

King Faisal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bibiani Gold Stars ↓

King Faisal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Bibiani Gold Stars or draw

48%

Bibiani Gold Stars or King Faisal

77%

Draw or King Faisal

75%

Winning margin

Bibiani Gold Stars wins by 2+

10%

King Faisal wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Bibiani Gold Stars 1+ goals

70%

Bibiani Gold Stars 2+ goals

34%

Bibiani Gold Stars 3+ goals

12%

King Faisal 1+ goals

84%

King Faisal 2+ goals

54%

King Faisal 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Bibiani Gold Stars (draw refunded)

32%

King Faisal (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bibiani Gold Stars at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

King Faisal away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bibiani Gold Stars attack 1.00 + King Faisal defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

King Faisal attack 2.00 + Bibiani Gold Stars defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bibiani Gold Stars scores more

25%

level

23%

King Faisal scores more

52%

King Faisal at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "King Faisal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff