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Bibiani Gold Stars vs King Faisal — Premier League 2019

Bibiani Gold Stars
Bibiani Gold Stars
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
King Faisal
King Faisal
P. Opoku Agyemang 81', 55'
Y. Dzia Ull Haqq 45' (OG)
5/8/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 28Bibiani Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Bibiani Gold Stars61%
×Draw24%
King Faisal15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bibiani Gold Stars
1.64
King Faisal
0.67

Bibiani Gold Stars creates 145% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 58 away

creates per match

Bibiani Gold Stars
1.58
King Faisal
0.72

allows per match

Bibiani Gold Stars
0.61
King Faisal
1.69

finishing

Bibiani Gold Stars+0.00on par
King Faisal+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bibiani Gold Stars ↓

King Faisal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bibiani Gold Stars or draw
85%
Bibiani Gold Stars or King Faisal
76%
Draw or King Faisal
39%

Winning margin

Bibiani Gold Stars wins by 2+
34%
King Faisal wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Bibiani Gold Stars 1+ goals
81%
Bibiani Gold Stars 2+ goals
49%
Bibiani Gold Stars 3+ goals
23%
King Faisal 1+ goals
49%
King Faisal 2+ goals
15%
King Faisal 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Bibiani Gold Stars (draw refunded)
80%
King Faisal (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bibiani Gold Stars at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.61 · 84 matches

King Faisal away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.69 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bibiani Gold Stars attack 1.58 + King Faisal defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.64

King Faisal attack 0.72 + Bibiani Gold Stars defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Bibiani Gold Stars scores more
61%
level
24%
King Faisal scores more
15%

Bibiani Gold Stars at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Bibiani Gold Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'
45'
Y. Dzia Ull HaqqOwn goal
55'
P. Opoku Agyemang
64'
73'
79'
81'
P. Opoku Agyemang

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Bibiani Gold Stars 2–1 King Faisal

Bibiani Gold Stars beat King Faisal 2-1 in Premier League on May 8, 2022.

Goals: Y. Dzia Ull Haqq (45' o.g.), P. Opoku Agyemang (55', 81').

The match was played at Bibiani Park in Bibiani.