Kayserispor 0–4 Fenerbahçe: Result & Stats

Kayserispor

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Fenerbahçe

Talisca 87', 60'

D. Nene 62'

N. Kante 45'

4/11/2026

League #203 · Round 29RHG Enerturk Enerji Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Kayserispor23%

×Draw23%

Fenerbahçe54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KayserisporExpected goals in this matchFenerbahçe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.86

Kayserispor

1.14

Fenerbahçe

1.86

Fenerbahçe creates 63% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 14 away

1.36

creates per match

2.08

1.65

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Kayserispor

1.36

Fenerbahçe

2.08

allows per match

Kayserispor

1.65

Fenerbahçe

0.92

+0.04on par

finishing

+0.42scores more than expected

finishing

Kayserispor+0.04on par

Fenerbahçe+0.42scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kayserispor ↓

Fenerbahçe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Kayserispor or draw

46%

Kayserispor or Fenerbahçe

77%

Draw or Fenerbahçe

77%

Winning margin

Kayserispor wins by 2+

9%

Fenerbahçe wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Kayserispor 1+ goals

68%

Kayserispor 2+ goals

32%

Kayserispor 3+ goals

11%

Fenerbahçe 1+ goals

84%

Fenerbahçe 2+ goals

55%

Fenerbahçe 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Kayserispor (draw refunded)

30%

Fenerbahçe (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kayserispor at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.65 · 5 matches

Fenerbahçe away — creates 2.08, concedes 0.92 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kayserispor attack 1.36 + Fenerbahçe defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.14

Fenerbahçe attack 2.08 + Kayserispor defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Kayserispor scores more

23%

level

23%

Fenerbahçe scores more

54%

Fenerbahçe at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Fenerbahçe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

94

Talisca

Fenerbahçe · M

9.0

Match Events

-5'

26'

32'

33'

45'

N. Kante↳ Talisca

46'

Youssef Aït Bennasser

46'

R. Civelek← D. Makarov

46'

C. Soyuncu← M. Skriniar

60'

Talisca↳ A. Brown

62'

D. Nene

63'

C. Mane← J. Katongo

63'

G. Saglam← Y. Ait Bennasser

63'

67'

68'

68'

71'

O. Aydin← D. Nene

75'

Fred← N. Kante

82'

G. Onugkha← F. Chalov

87'

Talisca↳ K. Akturkoglu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KayserisporFenerbahçe

Overview

39%Possession61%

11Total Shots18

0.41Expected Goals (xG)1.47

4Corners5

19Fouls11

Shots

11Total Shots18

3On Target7

5Off Target3

3Blocked8

4Inside Box10

7Outside Box8

Passing

39%Possession61%

357Total Passes555

280Accurate Passes490

78%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

0.13Goals Prevented0.13

Discipline

19Fouls11

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2