Kayserispor 2–6 Fenerbahçe: Result & Stats

Kayserispor

FT

2 – 6

HT: 1 – 3

Fenerbahçe

D. Kolovetsios 56'

A. Djiku 43' (OG)

S. Szymański 88'

F. Kostić 85'

Y. En-Nesyri 63'

O. Aydın 26', 15'

D. Tadić 7' (pen)

11/23/2024

League #203 · Round 13RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Kayserispor15%

×Draw18%

Fenerbahçe67%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KayserisporExpected goals in this matchFenerbahçe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

2.38

Kayserispor

1.02

Fenerbahçe

2.38

Fenerbahçe creates 133% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 25 away

1.17

creates per match

2.76

2.00

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Kayserispor

1.17

Fenerbahçe

2.76

allows per match

Kayserispor

2.00

Fenerbahçe

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kayserispor+0.00on par

Fenerbahçe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kayserispor ↓

Fenerbahçe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–18%

0–210%

0–38%

0–45%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–210%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Kayserispor or draw

33%

Kayserispor or Fenerbahçe

82%

Draw or Fenerbahçe

85%

Winning margin

Kayserispor wins by 2+

5%

Fenerbahçe wins by 2+

45%

Team goals

Kayserispor 1+ goals

64%

Kayserispor 2+ goals

27%

Kayserispor 3+ goals

8%

Fenerbahçe 1+ goals

91%

Fenerbahçe 2+ goals

68%

Fenerbahçe 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Kayserispor (draw refunded)

18%

Fenerbahçe (draw refunded)

82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kayserispor at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.00 · 12 matches

Fenerbahçe away — creates 2.76, concedes 0.88 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kayserispor attack 1.17 + Fenerbahçe defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.02

Fenerbahçe attack 2.76 + Kayserispor defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Kayserispor scores more

15%

level

18%

Fenerbahçe scores more

67%

Fenerbahçe at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Fenerbahçe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

70

O. Aydın

Fenerbahçe · M

8.6

Match Events

7'

D. TadićPenalty

9'

Ramazan Civelek

12'

Baran Ali Gezek

15'

O. Aydın↳ Fred

19'

Alexander Djiku

26'

O. Aydın↳ M. Yandaş

43'

A. DjikuOwn goal

46'

A. Karimi← B. Gezek

46'

Aylton Boa Morte← R. Civelek

56'

D. Kolovetsios↳ K. Yılmaz

63'

Y. En-Nesyri↳ D. Tadić

64'

Mert Hakan Yandaş

64'

S. Szymański← M. Yandaş

64'

E. Džeko← Y. En-Nesyri

70'

D. Nazon← S. Bahoken

74'

Duckens Nazon

74'

Samet Akaydın

75'

M. Müldür← B. Osayi-Samuel

84'

Miguel Cardoso

85'

F. Kostić

88'

S. Szymański↳ O. Aydın

89'

L. Mercan← O. Aydın

89'

İ. Yüksek← S. Amrabat

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KayserisporFenerbahçe

Overview

49%Possession51%

16Total Shots17

1.01Expected Goals (xG)3.83

10Corners5

11Fouls11

Shots

16Total Shots17

2On Target10

10Off Target4

4Blocked3

10Inside Box12

6Outside Box5

Passing

49%Possession51%

381Total Passes420

290Accurate Passes347

76%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

-0.82Goals Prevented-0.82

Discipline

11Fouls11

4Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2