Fenerbahçe 3–0 Kayserispor: Result & Stats

Fenerbahçe

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Kayserispor

Ç. Söyüncü 59'

A. Djiku 43'

M. Batshuayi 18'

5/12/2024

League #203 · Round 36Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Fenerbahçe69%

×Draw17%

Kayserispor14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FenerbahçeExpected goals in this matchKayserispor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.67

1.14

Fenerbahçe

2.67

Kayserispor

1.14

Fenerbahçe creates 134% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 10 away

2.73

creates per match

1.10

1.18

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

Fenerbahçe

2.73

Kayserispor

1.10

allows per match

Fenerbahçe

1.18

Kayserispor

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fenerbahçe+0.00on par

Kayserispor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fenerbahçe ↓

Kayserispor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Fenerbahçe or draw

86%

Fenerbahçe or Kayserispor

83%

Draw or Kayserispor

31%

Winning margin

Fenerbahçe wins by 2+

48%

Kayserispor wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Fenerbahçe 1+ goals

93%

Fenerbahçe 2+ goals

74%

Fenerbahçe 3+ goals

49%

Kayserispor 1+ goals

68%

Kayserispor 2+ goals

32%

Kayserispor 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Fenerbahçe (draw refunded)

83%

Kayserispor (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fenerbahçe at home — creates 2.73, concedes 1.18 · 22 matches

Kayserispor away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fenerbahçe attack 2.73 + Kayserispor defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.67

Kayserispor attack 1.10 + Fenerbahçe defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Fenerbahçe scores more

69%

level

17%

Kayserispor scores more

14%

Fenerbahçe at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Fenerbahçe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

B. Bayazıt

Kayserispor · G

8.6

Match Events

10'

Kartal Kayra Yılmaz

18'

M. Batshuayi↳ D. Tadić

28'

Otabek Shukurov

43'

A. Djiku

45+3'

Rodrigo Becão

46'

D. Nazon← O. Shukurov

51'

Gökhan Sazdağı

59'

Ç. Söyüncü↳ S. Szymański

62'

R. Civelek← Carlos Mané

66'

B. Osayi-Samuel← J. Oosterwolde

66'

J. King← D. Tadić

67'

J. Attamah← A. Kocaman

78'

S. Dursun← M. Batshuayi

78'

M. Yandaş← Ç. Söyüncü

81'

Y. Ackah← M. Bourabia

81'

E. Özbek← G. Sazdağı

82'

L. Bonucci← C. Ünder

90+1'

Aylton Boa Morte

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FenerbahçeKayserispor

Overview

50%Possession50%

25Total Shots10

1.97Expected Goals (xG)0.45

7Corners3

12Fouls11

Shots

25Total Shots10

15On Target3

6Off Target6

4Blocked1

18Inside Box6

7Outside Box4

Passing

50%Possession50%

411Total Passes427

303Accurate Passes327

74%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves12

Discipline

12Fouls11

1Yellow Cards4

3Offsides3

League #203: Fenerbahçe 3–0 Kayserispor

Fenerbahçe beat Kayserispor 3-0 in League #203 on May 12, 2024.

Goals: M. Batshuayi (18'), A. Djiku (43'), Ç. Söyüncü (59').

Fenerbahçe controlled possession (50%) and registered 25 shots to 10.

The match was played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi in İstanbul.

Fenerbahçe vs Kayserispor — League #203 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League #203: Fenerbahçe 3–0 Kayserispor